LEI-Indicator (predicting power), Nov. 2017
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 1.2 percent in October to 130.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.4 percent increase in August 2017. "The US LEI...
...increased sharply in October, as the impact of the hurricanes dissipated," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. He added: "The growth of the LEI, coupled with widespread strengths among its components, suggests that solid growth in the US economy will continue through the holiday season and into the new year."
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
♦ Average weekly hours, manufacturing
♦ Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
♦ Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
♦ ISM® Index of New Orders
♦ Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
♦ Building permits, new private housing units
♦ Stock prices, 500 common stocks
♦ Leading Credit Index™
♦ Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
♦ Average consumer expectations for business conditions
AS LONG AS THE LEI is trending upwards in a sustainable manner, we should be positive for the near-time future development (statistics-source, LEI = a Crystal Ball? www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/is-the-lei-a-crystal-ball)