Latest Articles

DAX-Kursindex seit 2000 (Status: 17. Okt. 2018)

DAX (als Kursindex, somit exkl. Dividenden)

Viele Blue-Chip-Indizes (z. B. Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100, CAC 40) berücksichtigen die Dividenden nicht, sind also Kursindizes. Der DAX hingegen ist (eigentlich) ein Performanceindex. Er wird so berechnet, als ob alle Dividenden...


...und ...

BofAML's Fund Manager Survey (12th Oct. 2018)

BofAML's Fund Manager Survey Sees Global Outlook as Worst Since 2008
Survery taken at end of week (Friday: 12th Oct. 2018)

I liked the US-Industrial Production numbers of today. And the Stock Market "liked" the BAD SENTIMENT among the fund managers...

BofAML Fund Manager Survey (12th Oct. 2018)

...(see survey statements in the ...

DAX (GD auf Monatsbasis, Status: Okt. 2018)

DAX >>
Langfristig auf Monatsbasis noch (!) neutral bis leicht positiv..

ALLERDINGS gibt es Momentum auf der "Downside"!
Status: 13. Okt. 2018

DAX BIG PICTURE (MA-50 monthly as support?)

GUT DING BRAUCHT WEILE...(?)

...immerhin quält sich der geschundene "Dachs" seit April 2015 schleppend in einem Wellental der Gefühle (BREXIT-Voting, ...

DAX und seine Brüder "on the edge"

DAX und seine "Brüder"

Einfaches Resumé: "To be or not to be" (kurz- bis mittelfristig).

DAX und Brüder "on the edge", Status: 12. Okt. 2018

Toi toi toi

LG Ralph

FEAR & GREED INDEX (11th Oct. 2018)

CNN Money
FEAR & GREED INDEX
(Status: 11th Oct. 2018 / After Market-Close)

Since the Index just reached an extreme level (< 20), my best guess would be, that we will be trying to find a floor in the S&P 500 these weeks (between 2,600 and 2,750 points), a level which could then serve...

Fear & Greed Index (11th Oct. 2018), source: CNN MONEY

...as ...

Gr8 Outperformance versus S&P 500 ('95 - 2018)

Gr8 OUTPERFORMANCE versus S&P 500 (broad US-Stock Market)
BACKTEST Jan. 1995 - Sep. 2018

No negative year in 24 years (timespan: 1995 - Sep. 2018)!

The low-Volatility portfolio (BUY&HOLD) started with 9 stocks and a Cash-ratio of ca. 24% (red line-Portfolio). The USD 10,000 were...

9 stocks-Portfolio (Buy & Hold is possible), Oct. 2018

...

Backtest of 8 US-Stocks (2002 - Sep. 2018)

Backtest of 8 US-Stocks
(2002 - Sep. 2018)

Great outperformance versus the US-Stock Market (S&P 500) and positive returns in each of the past 18 years!

Backtest 8 stocks (2002 - Sep. 2018)

There are still many ways to achieve an unbelievable outperformance against a "risky S&P 500" (see the Drawdowns of the broad US-Stock ...

Seasonality Q4 (past 20 years, Status: Sep 2018)

Seasonality Q4
(let's recheck the statistics for the ongoing/upcoming Q4-2018)

From a closing-level of ca. 2,900 points in the broad US-Stock Market Index S&P 500 a rise of ca. 4.75% until the end of the year would mean a closing-level > 3,000 points as per December-end 2018.

Q4-2018 (possible outcomes?), Status: 5th Oct. 2018

Let's see
Cheers ...

ETF-Cocktail (Backtest since my birthday ;-)

ETF-Cocktail
(Backtest since my birthday ;-)

Well, this might be to far-fetched. But indeed, I started a backtest over the period 1978 until the 2017. Below the following backtest-charts I added a real ETF-Cocktail, explaining on how to reshuffle specific ETFs, which are on the market:

ETF-Cocktail (Defensive, 50% US-Treasuries), Backtest 1978 - 2017


Over ...