Featured Articles
Irrational Exuberance (Book)
Robert J. Shiller, Co-Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics published a New York Times Bestseller:
Irrational Exuberance is about something far more important than the current situation in any given market because the book explains the forces that move all markets up and down. It shows...
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DAX Buchwert versus DAX-Notierungen (Sep. 2022)
DAX Buchwert
(German Stock Market-Index DAX versus its Book Value)
Mit der Kurserholung im Aug. 2022 hat die DAX-Kurs-Buchwert-Bewertung mit 1,5 ein höheres Niveau erreicht. In der nun drohenden Phase einer Rezession sowohl in Deutschland als auch in den USA hält die Bank SocGen jedoch...
...
Seasonality in an U.S. Midterm-Election year
Seasonality in an U.S. Midterm-Election year
Let's remember, as bad as things may seem, statistics in on the side of investors. The average midterm year – like this one – is typically down as of 5th October. It finishes, however, up 6% on average. Further good...
...prospects (Spoiler: ...
Realzins: Der wirkliche Zinsertrag nach Inflation
Realzins Definiton: Der wirkliche Zinsertrag nach Inflation
5 % Zinsen - über einen solchen Zinssatz würden sich normalerweise die meisten Anleger freuen. Allerdings sieht dies nicht mehr so rosig bei 5 % Inflation aus. Hier würde die Kaufkraft merklich sinken und die...
...Verzinsung ...
Stock Market Returns (ca. 6.75%+ per annum)
(Historical) Stock Market Returns
Many might be surprised to learn, however, that since about 1800, stocks have consistently returned an average of 6.5 to 7.0 percent per year (after inflation). In 2001, the market capitalization of...
...the companies that made up the S&P 500 was about USD ...
(High) Inflation & the US-Stock Market
(HIGH) Inflation & the US-Stock Market
Let's recheck how the Stock Market did in the high-Inflation era (mainly) of the 70s. To begin with, the historical data provided by portfoliovisualizer showed an average inflation number of ca. 9.2% from the years...
...1973 until 1981. In these ...
AAII Investor Sentiment bullish < 16%
AAII-Bulls reading < 16%
(14th April 2022)
US Investor Sentiment, % Bullish is an indicator that is a part of the AAII Sentiment Survey. It indicates the percentage of investors surveyed that had a bullish outlook on the market. An investor that is bullish, will primarily think that...
...
Bitcoin (Pot. Magic, if CLOSE > 45.555 $)
Bitcoin (Magic, if Daily CLOSE > 45k $)
Let's see, if Bitcoin can close this week above 45,555 $. If BTC can also manage a 3Day-Close above 45,555 $ by tomorrow, Monday, that could mark a real bullish Signal - in my view:
For the moment the BITCOIN-chart- above looks very interesting. By ...
AAII-Bulls reading < 20%
AAII-Bulls reading < 20%
(16.Feb 2022)
Die Geschichte der AAII-Befragungen zeigt uns, dass einer sehr geringe Bullenquote unter den Teilnehmern oft eine positive 12-Monatsperformance im S&P 500 folgt:
Am Mittwoch, 16. Feb. 2022, wurde von AAII eine geringe Bullenquote von 19,2% registriert, ...
S&P 500 "Fair-Value Model" (Cost of Capital ca. 8%)
S&P 500 Fair Value in the year 2022 and 2023
The foundational paper on valuation that professors Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani (M&M) wrote in 1961. In it, they addressed a fundamental question: "What does the market ‘really’ capitalize?" They did not crown a winner...
...among ...
