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Learn about your personality

We are scared of making a wrong choice versus making a bold decision (?). We should overcome our fear of making mistakes and should take an active role in shaping our (own) future. Take control!

"Overcome your fear of making a mistake.
Take a bold stance, an active role in big life situations. Calculate the risk, and take control!"

Keywords taken from the short video:
♦ "perception of risk" / "using a nudge"/using the power of loss aversion (example: reducing car accidents)
Our greatest threat may be our biases

♦ Personal finance/Retirement planning; Do you ...

Are you conquering your FEAR?


Certified financial planner Geri Eisenman Pell, CEO of Pell Wealth Partners, notes that the study of behavioral finance—how and why people make the financial decisions they do—has taught today's financial planners to talk to investor clients to examine the rationale behind their decisions and to guide them in the right direction.

She continues: People will often want to hold on to a certain investment for emotional reasons: for example, they've had it for years, they worked at that particular corporation or they inherited the ...

Benjamin Graham (teacher of Warren Buffet / Prof. at Columbia University)

The explanation cannot be found in any mathematics but it has to be found in investor psychology” (B. Graham)

Furtheron he goes "You can have an extraordinary difference in the price level mereley because not only speculators but investors themselves are looking at the situation through rose-colored glasses rather than dark-blue glasses. It may well be true that the underlying psychology of the American people has not changed so much and what the American people been waiting for many years has been an excuse for ...

The Psychology of Investor Behavior (part2/2)

Scott Bosworth, CFA, Vice President of Dimensional Fund Advisors presents Part Two of The Psychology of Investor Behavior Video Series (Behavioral Finance). Some topics:

-) Words on Eugene F. Fama, Richard Thaler, John Maynard Keynes, Daniel Kahneman
-) Is Market Efficiency a Myth? (Justin Fox / The Myth of the Rational Market)
-) Are Magazine Covers Good at Picking Stocks?
-) Overconfidence

quote by John Maynard Keynes: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

Scott breaks down the relationship between risk and expected ...

The Psychology of Investor Behavior (part1/2)

Scott Bosworth, CFA, Vice President of Dimensional Fund Advisors presents Part One of The Psychology of Investor Behavior Video Series (Behavioral Finance). Some topics:

-) Are we working against ourselves when we invest?
-) Do our instincts betray our own decision making process?
-) Threats (Fear) and Opportunities (Greed / "the next door neighbour effect")
-) Market bubbles (Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble)
-) explanation on Attribution Bias, Confirmation Errors, Anchoring & Extrapolation, Familiarity Bias like the Home Bias
-) Irrational ...

Topics covered in this Behavioral Finance-video:

In this episode of Symmetry Shorts, Symmetry's John McDermott, Ph.D., describes how investor overconfidence, self-bias, and perceived control can lead to negative outcomes.

John explains that Decision-Making and the outcomes involve internal factors (skill, hard work, intelligence) but also external factors like luck.

Paul Craven, well known presenter on Behavioral Finance topics (< 22 Min. - Video)

"from biases to bubbles"

Related Articles

Some of us are highly loss averse, but in general we’re all averse to losses to some degree. Empirical estimates find that losses are felt between two and two-and-a-half as strongly as gains. Thus the disutility of losing $100 is at least twice the utility of gaining $100. Evenutally loss ...

Anchoring (heuristic)

Anchoring is a particular form of priming effect whereby initial exposure to a number serves as a reference point and influences subsequent judgments about value. The process usually occurs without our awareness (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and sometimes it occurs when ...

Cognitive biases (incl. the Snake Bite Effect)

T.W. Pitchers’ Snake Bite...are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics (behavioral finance).

Although the reality of these ...

Fear & Greed (Index)

The last time the Index was near such low readings (3) was during the last correction in the US Financial markets, occuring in Oct. 2014. That time it took the index about one week to get out of that negative sentiment (such a quick turnaround may not be the standard).

Fear & Greed Index (CNN Money)


Dow Jones (IA) Trendbreite-Oszillator (kfr. MarktUNTERtreibung ?)

Vereinfacht gesagt wird mit diesem Oszillator die Marktbreite im Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gemessen.

Marktbreite-Oszillator DJIA (aktuelle Anwendung von DAS BOERSENBUCH)

Allgemein: Sofern eine Aktie über dem 200-Tage-Durchschnitt (SMA200) notiert, wird von einer guten Trendstärke ...

Love-Panic Sentiment (Feb. 2016)

Love panic is a sentiment indicator created by BNP and gives an idea if the equity market is in a phase that is either love, neutral, and panic. This is a contrarian indicator so a high reading would be considered too much love which can signal a market high.

Love-Panic Market Timing Indicator (BNP) ...

Oxytocin & Co. (Fear & Gier)
Stichworte: Nucleus Accumbens, Dopamin, Oxytocin, Adrenalin, Kontrollverlust

"Unser Gehirn ist süchtig nach Belohnungen"

Wer Geld gespart hat, überlegt, wie er es vermehren kann, etwa an der Börse. Aber unser Hirn kann nicht mit Geld umgehen, findet der ehemalige ...

Recency Bias (Q1/2016)

Recency Bias. We are all prone to recency bias, meaning that we tend to extrapolate recent events into the future indefinitely. Following the January 2016-sell-off period:

Q1/2016 Market Sell-Off (quote)The peak recommended stock weighting came just after the peak of the internet bubble in early 2001 ...

Mister Market (Psychogram)

In the investment world, we were first introduced to Mr. Market by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book, The Intelligent Investor. Graham’s mentee, Warren Buffett, still calls this book "by far the best book on investing ever written."

Further he states that "chapters 8 ...

Bubbles (comparison years 1721 versus 2000)
South Sea Stock versus NASDAQ-Comp.

Bubbles can hit anyone! For practitioners of Schadenfreude, seeing high-profile investors losing their shirts is always amusing. But for the true connoisseur, the finest expression of the art comes...

Soth Sea Stock (Sir I. Newton), 1718-1721

...when a ...

Künstliche Intelligenz
Roboter vermehren das Geld

Wer den Namen Bernhard Langer hört, denkt vermutlich zuerst an Deutschlands berühmtesten Golfspieler. Etliche Anleger kennen aber noch einen ­anderen Bernhard Langer - er ist Fachmann für computergestützte Anlagestrategien.

Bernhard LangerBild-quelle:  ...

Fear & Greed Index (three indicators selected)
post Brexit (26th June 2016)

Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. So what emotion is driving the market now? CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index makes it clear.

VIX "Extreme Fear" (24th June 2016)

They look ...

Wissen ist nicht gleich "wissen"

Intelligenz bzw. Schläue spielt für uns in der Arbeitswelt eine wichtige Rolle. Doch der höchste Intelligenzquotient und das größte Allgemeinwissen bringen nichts, wenn nicht danach gehandelt wird. „Dumm ist der, der dummes tut“, sagt Forrest Gump...

forrest Gump (dumm ist der, der Dummes tut) ...

BOFA Fund Manager Survey (July 2016)
Cash levels at a 15-year high

Despite the post-Brexit market rally, fund managers have gotten even more wary of taking risks. Following Long-Term chart still shows the elder, lower reading of 5.6%, the most recent reading is now 5.8%.

Cash-Balance fund managers (BOFA), HY1/2016

The S&P 500 has ...

Viele Crashgurus unterwegs (Aug. 2016)

Aktuelle Stimmen aus der Börsenwelt (Mitte Aug. 2016):
-) Experten bezweifeln, dass der DAX 30 seine Rally nach dem Jahreshoch fortsetzen wird.
-) Das Jahreshoch des DAX 30 ist kaum von Bedeutung.
-) Experten geht die Rally zu schnell...

Berkshire Hathaway (Sep. 2013 - Aug. 2016)

-) Kurse haben sich ...


Ausschweifung, Maßlosigkeit, Habgier, Faulheit, Zorn, Neid und Hochmut. Die 7 Todsünden lassen sich auch auf das Anlageuniversum übertragen. FundResearch und Aberdeen Asset Management zeigen warnende Beispiele, die jeder Investor beherzigen sollte.


Investor Movement Index (IMX)

The Investor Movement Index, or the IMX, is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of retail investors. The IMX saw its largest ever single month increase in August as volatility hit a two-year low!

Investor Movement Index / behavior-based index (created by TD Ameritrade), Aug. 2016

TD ...

Fear & Greed (43 versus 69)

Now, that the Fear & Greed Index of has fallen below the "50-points-threshold" this could give the markets the chance to breathe through for regaining momentum for the later months of the year 2016.

Fear & Greed Index (43 as per 9th Sep. 2016)

As can be seen from the ...

BOFA Fund Manager Survey (Oct. 2016)
Cash Allocations are Close to 15-Year Highs

Cash levels jumped from 5.5% in September to 5.8% in October 2016. Investors' average cash balance was last this high in July 2016 (post-Brexit vote) and in Fall 2001.

BOFA - Global Fund Manager-average cash balance (Oct. 2016)

More precise: The share of cash hasn't been ...

LGT Private Banking Report 2016

Studie im Auftrag von LGT; Durchführung: Abteilung für Asset Management der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz Leitung Univ.-Prof. Dr. Teodoro D. Cocca. Ziel: Befragung zum Kundenverhalten von Private-Banking-Kunden in Österreich, Deutschland und der Schweiz.

Asset Allocation Österreich (2014, 2015, 2016) "Aktienquote" ...

Risikobereitschaft (Korrelation mit Geburtsjahr, subjektive Einschätzung), Mag. Ralph Gollner (2016)

Behavioral Finance versus starrer Regulierungs-Wut?! Plausible/"Korrekte" Einschätzung vom Risiko und Wissen um die eigene Risikoaversion sind bei der Geldanlage unverzichtbare Bausteine, um eine passende mittel- bis langfristige Strategie erstellen zu können, die zur individuellen Person ...

Investing in the Rearview Mirror

"In the business world, the rear view mirror is always clearer than the windshield." W. Buffett; "You can't see the future through a rearview mirror" Peter Lynch; "Too often, investors are more inclined to look at the rearview mirror...

Investing in the Rearview Mirror (Hindsight-Bias)


Positive Gallup Surveys (Nov./Dec. 2016)

-) Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index at highest level since January 2008
-) Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index jumps to 9-year high

Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index (1996 - 2016)

Individual investor optimism jumped to a nine-year high in November 2016, according to the Wells ...

Shiny, happy people (!?)
Optimistic Individual Investors

The American Association of Individual Investors is regularly asking its members for feedback on their surveys. At the start of the year they asked following, more focused: the possible annual return of the S&P 500; But first:

AAAI survey (Outlook for 2017?), Q&A

Only 21% ...

Emotions and DAX-Index
(Q4-2014 - Q4-2016)

A team of personal trainers, scientists and nutritionists can design the most sophisticated diet and exercise plan but it will have no chance of success if it is impractical for most people to follow.

Emotions and DAX-Index (Q4-2014 - Q4-2016)

Therefore it is of utmost importance to ...

Marktstruktur, Marktbreite
(Phasen A bis E)

Die Aktienmärkte befinden sich evtl. noch immer in einer Transitionsphase (C-Struktur). Diese kann in einen Bullenmarkt münden, wenn es zu einer positiven Überraschung kommt, wie z.B. zu einer technologischen Innovation, die...

Markstruktur/-en A-E (Quelle: unifinanz)

...ähnliche ...

Consumer Sentiment vs. S&P 500

I created a chart comparing the Michigan Consumer Sentiment versus the U.S. Stock market (S&P 500) since the last recession (2008/2009). For the moment (Q1-2017) it seems that the famous "Animal spirits" have taken over...

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment versus S&P 500 (2008-Dec. 2016)

The final reading of the University ...

Stock Newsletter Sentiment
(HSNSI, Mark Hulbert)

Stock-market timers grow cautious, and that's good for equities. Market tops are usually characterized by stubbornly held bullishness, but that’s not what we're seeing today. Stock-market timers have been turning remarkably cautious. It's...

HSNSI Stock Newsletter Sentiment (Mark Hulbert), Dec. 2014 - Jan. 2017


Cash Indicator and other great stuff from BofAML
(Jan./Feb. 2017)

The BofAML Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is a monthly survey of 200-250 primarily long-only investors. One of the key questions in this survey asks for cash balance as % of assets under management. A low cash balance indicates...

Global FMS Cash Indicator (until Jan. 2017)


Why Invest in Women?

Research shows that companies that embrace gender diversity on their boards and in management often experience improved performance and profitability as a result. Consider the following: Invest in companies with women in CEO, board, or senior level positions, thereby...

Why Invest in Women? ...

"Made in Germany"
ist das beliebteste Label der Welt

Für mich ist es glasklar: Warren Buffet hat einen Home-Bias (gerechtfertigt oder nicht will ich nicht beurteilen). Haben wir in Österreich & Deutschland auch einen Home-Bias? Wenn ja, gerechtfertigt? Die US-Wirtschaft würde gerne...

Index-Kombi von DAX-Kursindex, MDAX-Kursindex, SDAX-Kursindex (2009 - März 2017), Chart erstellt von Mag. Ralph Gollner; Charting-tool:


"Unser Gehirn kann nicht mit Geld umgehen, daher sind wir Idioten der Kapitalanlage":

So der Ex-Banker Roland Ullrich, der sich nun nach seinem Ausstieg aus der Banker-Welt, der Verhaltensökonomie und Hirnforschung verschrieben hat. Aus dem Literarischen wissen wir vom Rat eines guten...

Nucleus accumbens (Amygdala)


"Wie Kultur die Anleger beeinflusst"

Kulturelle Unterschiede auch in Finanzfragen - Nordeuropäer cool/er (geduldig)

Trotz der fortschreitenden Globalisierung gibt es weiterhin kulturelle Unterschiede. Auf der Welt werden rund 6.500 Sprachen gesprochen, die Essgewohnheiten sind...

Verlustaversion und Geduld (Kultur, Geld-Anleger und Entscheidungen)


Psychologie & DAX

In persönlichen Gesprächen höre ich in letzter Zeit oft: Die Aktien steigen doch immer die letzten Jahre - "ist ja ganz einfach". Nun, so einfach ist es wohl nicht. You gotta have SKIN IN THE GAME ! Eine einfache Stütze ist jedoch ein langfristiger Anlagehorizont!

Investieren in den DAX (2014 - 2016), NO PAIN > NO GAIN !

"It's ...

Mr. Market

"Remember that the stock market is a manic depressive." (Warren Buffett)
Rules of logic often don't apply SHORT-TERM in investment markets. The well-known advocate of value investing, Benjamin Graham, coined the term "Mr. Market! (in 1949) as a metaphor to explain the stock market.

Mister Market (Dow Jones 1993 - 2012) ...

Home Bias versus Cosmopolitan

Everyone is guilty of home country bias, let's be different:
Try to invest/be(come) COSMOPOLITAN !

For many people, there's no place like home. But if you're only investing at home, first: you are taking high(er) risks and 2nd sometime you're missing out...

Cosmopolitan (versus Home Bias)


Wie viele Gefühle hat der Mensch?

Vorab stellt sich die Frage, wie relevant diese Frage für die "Behavioral Finance" ist? Nun, nicht nur für die Verhaltensökonomie ist die Auseinandersetzung mit Gefühlen extrem wichtig, auch für alle anderen Bereiche! Jeder hat Gefühle, aber...


...für viele ...

Der Marmeladenversuch oder
"Die Qual der Wahl"

In den Medien machen öfter Artikel die Runde, die zum Gegenstand die Neuroökonomie haben. Solche Artikel tragen zum Beispiel Überschriften wie "Gibt es ein schlaues Verhalten?" Für die Börse ist diese Thematik ein gefundenes Fressen. Denn...

Marmeladenversuch (Qual der Wahl)


Artificial Intelligence and the
Investment process

Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) in investment management is a possibility; But there are many aspects in the investment process where AI can and cannot function as a support. Even the most sophisticated machine learning...

AI and the Investment Process

...technologies ...