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A study back-test for the cost of production proposed to >>>
value the digital currency bitcoin.

("Input costs")

Results from both conventional regression (and vector autoregression/VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an important role in explaining bitcoin...

Inputcosts Bitcoin (Juni 2018)

...prices, challenging recent allegations that bitcoins are essentially worthless. Even with markets pricing bitcoin in the thousands of dollars each, the valuation model seems robust. The data show that a price deviation may have begun in the summer of 2017 which is yet to be completely resolved.

The ...

Bitcoin Mining Costs (potential floor?)

My calculations - derived from the sources given in the links below:
A Minimum Price for 1 Bitcoin (Intermediate time-frame) of ca. USD 7,500
(Status: 21st April 2018)

Searching for an intermediate floor for the Bitcoin-price may lead ones research to the obvious input costs for the participating Bitcoin-miners. The Keyword here being: "electricity costs". 

The primary ongoing cost for bitcoin production is that of electricity, measured in dollars per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Of course, different regions of the world will consume electricity at their ...

Bticoin (still > SMA200-daily)

"[Cryptocurrencies] are unlikely to disappear completely and could easily survive in varying forms and shapes among players who desire greater decentralization, peer-to-peer networks and anonymity, even as the latter is under threat," the report said, adding...

BTC (SMA 200-daily)

...that the underlying technology could have the greatest application in area where current payment systems are slow.

JPMorgan Chase said the biggest challenges ahead for digital currencies is that it will be extremely hard for them to displace and compete with government-issued currencies, "as ...

EUR/USD in the year 2017

The Bloomberg dollar index is on track for an annual decline of ca. 8.2%, though it has pared its drop from the more than 10% seen early in September. The dollar had surged to a 14-year high on 3rd January, including a 2017 low for EUR/USD at 1.0341. The Euro...

EUR/USD 2017-performance versus previous years now up more than 13.5% YTD, its biggest advance since 2003, and is the largest G-10 gainer against the U.S. currency this year. EUR/USD was just recently trading @ ca. 1.195, with the pair approaching the late November-2017 high at 1.1961 that may offer technical resistance (?).

Breach of the ...

MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 5 Index

The MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 5 Index is a modified market cap-weighted index which tracks the performance of the 5 largest and most liquid digital assets. Most demanding size and liquidity screenings are applied to potential index...

MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 5 Index (Jan. 2016 - 17th Dec. 2017)

...components to ensure investability.

Short FAQ-Session:

(Recap:) What are digital assets?

Digital assets, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin are cryptographically secured, protocol-governed and mostly non-centrally issued assets that serve as store or value, medium of exchange or technology ...

Bitcoin Market Value vs. some other sectors

Below the following table you will find the %-indications, what bitcoin would roughly equal as a percentage of the total value of the given sectors. The market sizes were taken from the "Money Project":

Bitcoin Market Value and the Total Value of other Sectors (8th Dec. 2017)

As mentioned here are the %-numbers:

♦ Bitcoin currently stands with its market cap of 275bn USD for roughly 3.6 % of the USD 7.7 trillion gold market,
♦ 0.38 % of the USD 73 trillion global stocks market and
♦ 0.13 % of the USD 217 trillion real estate market.


Milestones Bitcoin VERSUS Dow Jones Ind. Average
(Status: 30th Nov. 2017)

Here to wrap up, how many days it took the Dow Jones Industrial Average AND the Bitcoin (in the year 2017 alone) to reach another milestone (round numbers like 1k): The cryptocurrency was breaking through...

Milestones 1,000 (BTC versus DJIA), Ralph Gollner (Nov. 2017)

...psychological barriers - that is, big round numbers - with increasing frequency during the past 11 months! Bitcoin managed to take each new USD 1,000-hurdle in less than 100 days (as can be seen in the diagram above).

In part, this is simple math: The jump from USD USD 1,000 to USD 2,000 is much steeper, ...

nach der Mario Draghi-Rede

Es tobt wohl ein "Fight" im EUR/USD zwischen der "fairen" Kaufkraftparität, welche (weit) über Kursen von 1,20 steht - einerseits und dem Druck auf den Euribor(s) andererseits. Aktuell herrscht wieder kurzfristig etwas...

EUR/USD (Mario Draghi Rede, Österr. Nationalfeiertag 26. Okt. 2017)

...mehr Druck auf den Euro, nachdem die EZB heute (zeitgleich mit dem österr. Nationalfeiertag), 26. Okt. 2017, angekündigt hat wie erwartet das Tempo ihrer milliardenschweren Anleihekäufe zu drosseln. Ab Jänner 2018 will die Notenbank monatlich 30 Milliarden Euro in den Markt pumpen statt wie derzeit 60 Mrd. Euro. Allerdings soll ...

MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 5 Index

The MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 5 Index is a modified market cap-weighted index which tracks the performance of the 5 largest and most liquid digital assets. Most demanding size and liquidity screenings are applied to potential index...

CryptoCompare Digital Assets 5 Index (Oct. 2017)

...components to ensure investability.

Short FAQ-Session:

What are digital assets?

Digital assets, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin are cryptographically secured, protocol-governed and mostly non-centrally issued assets that serve as store or value, medium of exchange or technology investments. ...

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) und wie es nun weitergeht (?)

Reine Charbeschau ohne zusätzliche fundamentalen Begründungen, Erklärungen oder sonstigen Kommentaren. Hier nur der Chart, in welchem ja eigentlich alle zukünftigen Information "per heute" enthalten sein sollten:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Chart (20. Oktober 2017), Ralph Gollner

Ewas kryptische Sätze in diesem Posting, aber dennoch wohl gerade sehr passend beim Thema Bitcoin.

Disclaimer: Ralph Gollner hereby discloses that he is directly and indirectly investing in Ethereum and Bitcoin. Both are prominent names in the cryptocurrency-space (investments as per 20th Oct. 2017).

EUR/USD in der Nähe von 1,19

Folgend der sehr langfristigen Durchschnittslinie auf Monatsbasis (EMA 200) befindet sich nun der Euro versus USD in einer spannenden technischen Region ("extreme resistance" zw. 1,185 bis 1,215).

EURUSD - magic levels between 1.19 and 1.21 (Aug. 2017)


It's all about the "Euro" ?

This chart should put the size of bitcoin in perspective

Intro: Bill Gates's net worth still beats bitcoin's entire market cap; on 21st June 2017 put things into perspective and demonstrated that for all the buzz and excitement bitcoin has generated, it still has a long way to...

Bitcoin versus Rest (May/June 2017)

...go to be even remotely relevant. The current value of all the bitcoin (BTCUSD) in the world is worth about USD 41 billion, according to the cost-estimating website. As the HowMuch chart shows, the fattest bubble is for all the money in the world - including bank deposits - which comes out to ...

Bitcoin versus Gold ("Global Market Cap")

The last time I mentioned Bitcoin on my site (6th March 2017), the price of Bitcoin climbed to USD 1,241. Some hours ago, Bitcoin passed the USD 2,000 level. Just for Info; HIGH (!!) RISK !

Gold MarketCap vs. Bitcoin MarketCap (21st May 2017), Image via "The Money Project" - comments added by Ralph Gollner

Disclaimer/Disclosure: Ralph Gollner hereby declares, that he holds certifictates, which track the development of the Bitcoin.


Original picture-source:

EUR/USD-Snapshot (März 2017)

Folgend einem Interviewduell zwischen den französischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten und den möglichen Gerüchten bzgl. eines möglichen (!) Auslaufens der expansiven EZB-Notenbankpolitik erstarkt der Euro wieder etwas...

EURUSD Snapshot (2015 - 03/2017)

PPP (EUR/USD) - "fair" Value?

Die Frage stellt sich, ob und wie sich die aktuelle Inflationsdifferenz USA/Euroland auf den Kursverlauf des Euro/Dollar auswirken wird. Hier kommt die Realzinsdifferenz ins Spiel, die sowohl die Zins- als auch die Inflationsdifferenzberücksichtigt.

Realzinsdifferenz EUR/USD 2006 - Jan. 2017, "PPP", Kaufkraftparitätentheorie

Gerechnet ist diese Differenz bis einschließlich März 2017. Theoretisch sollte somit der Euro positiv beeinflusst werden, der US-Dollar entsprechend negativ. Allerdings nur in der Theorie; in der Praxis kommt -insbesondere- die Frage nach dem Zeitraum (wann genau?) dazu.

Allgemein/Es gibt vor allem drei ...

Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, etc.)

Just for Info; HIGH (!!) RISK; At approximately 10:20 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday (2nd March 2017), the price of Bitcoin climbed to USD 1,241.30 which was an all-time high for the digital currency. At the same time, the spot price of gold sat...

Total market cap Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin & Co.), 5th March 2017

chart-source: about USD 1,241.25 per ounce. Equally as interesting is the fact that bitcoin surpassed the USD 20 billion market capitalization mark on the same day as well. Compared to the market caps of each of the S&P 500-components all Cryptocurrencies taken together would ...

10year US, 2year US (study on FX-impact)

Very theoretic, but good to think about it; most recent yield steepness observed (rising since several weeks already). For information purposes: Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions in the last decades.

Yield Curve (US 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), 1990 - Jan. 2017

Important to know also, that from a rising interest-rate environment, not only banks should profit, but the whole overall economy - indicating the positive judgement of the Central Bank about the health of the economy (otherwise they would not raise the rates - OR would be extremely fearful of exploding inflation numbers - "Remember Mr. Volcker ...

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above magic 100-level

The dollar rolled higher versus major rivals following upbeat data on durable goods orders and maintained gains after minutes of the Federal Reserve's November policy meeting...

DXY above the magic 100-level (23rd Nov. 2016), - Chart

...reinforced expectations for a December rate increase. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) which measures the buck against a basket of six currencies, traded at 101.68 in recent action (23rd Nov. 2016), up from 101.01 late Tuesday (22nd Nov. 2016) in New York. The index traded as high as 101.78 its highest since April 2003 !


WTI-Öl (MACD-Signal im April 2016)

WTI-Öl (MACD-Signal im Monatschart im April 2016)

EUR/USD > 1,10 (Aug. 2016)

EURUSD > 1,10 (Aug. 2016); Snapshot 2013 - Aug. 2016

USDJPY (1972 - 3rd Aug. 2016)

For the most part, as goes the Yen over the past several years, so goes the carry trade - and risk-on assets. For example, the relationship between the Yen and equities has been very tight (on an inverse basis) over the recent years.

USDJPY Snapshot (1972 - 3rd Aug. 2016)

The relationship between the Yn and equities has been very tight until Mid of the 1st HY-2016 (on an inverse basis) and over the past years. When the Yen has dropped, stocks have rallied – and vice versa – in a very consistent manner. As evidence, the Yen bottomed in May 2015 coincident with the top in stocks.

The Japanese ...

Gold (2003 - Aug. 2016)

Solange der Goldpreis über 1.300 USD, bzw. zumindest 1.241 USD notiert, bzw. gar weiter ansteigt, erscheint GOLD in Zeiten wie diesen (Unsicherheit durch Geopolitik, Notenbankpolitik) eine sinnvolle Ergänzung.

GOLD (2003 - 3. Aug. 2016)

Oil (WTI)

Die durch den Fracking-Boom in den USA mitausgelösten Überkapazitäten bei der Ölproduktion belasteten seit Sommer 2014 massiv den Ölpreis. Zuletzt führten Förderkürzungen aber wieder zu einer Stabilisierung.

Oil-WTI /(HY2/2014 - May 2016)

So sind die Rohöllagerbestände in den USA sind in der vergangenen Woche deutlich gesunken. Im Vergleich zur Vorwoche verringerten sie sich um 4,2 Millionen Barrel auf 537,1 Millionen Barrel, wie die Energy Information Administration (EIA) mitteilte.

Erwartet worden war nur ein Rückgang um 1,7 Millionen Barrel. Am Dienstagabend bereits hatte das private American ...

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, 1973 - 2015)

To stock market technicians, the Long-Term Chart below is the mother of all "descending wedge" patterns. It's the U.S. Dollar Index, as measured and reported monthly by the Treasury Department, going back more than four decades.

U.S. Dollar-Index (DXY) 1973 - 2015Please click for the BIG PICTURE:

Technically, as the index breached the trendline to the upside, the dollar may keep falling or at least stabilising for a while. If USD rebreaks to the downside and rises sharply, the world is in a hell of a fix because of the ...

Silber (2003 - April 2016)

Silber profitiert Marktbeobachtern zufolge von einer Wiederbelebung der Industrienachfrage insbesondere in China. Und mehr als die Hälfte der Nachfrage nach dem „Edelmetall des kleinen Mannes“ stammt aus diesem Bereich.

SILBER_2003_2016April29_rG_chart_TOOL_guidants.png (697×511)

Silber wird beispielsweise in Legierungen, Elektronik oder bei der Herstellung von Solarzellen verwendet. Ein Teil der ETF-Anleger hat sich zudem von Gold ab und Silber zugewendet und Großspekulanten wie zum Beispiel Hedge-Fonds sehen die Aussichten für den Silberpreis ebenfalls positiv. Sie erhöhten ihre Wetten auf einen steigenden ...

Gold Ratios

There are two gold and silver miners indices frequently referred to: Philadelphia Gold and Silver miners index with ticker ^XAU (data since Dec 19, 1983) and the AMEX Unhedged Gold Bugs Index with ticker ^HUI (data since Jun 04, 1996).

XAU/Gold ratio 2016 (versus 2013), Long-Term-HistoryThe Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) is comprised of 30 international mining companies that began trading in December 1983. If you take the XAU and divide it by the price of gold, you get a relative value of miners to the price of gold. For example, at the quote in July 2015, gold was 1154 USD and the XAU was 59. >> Divide gold into the ...

Related Articles

Bitcoin (Magic, if Daily CLOSE > 45k $)

Let's see, if Bitcoin can close this week above 45,555 $. If BTC can also manage a 3Day-Close above 45,555 $ by tomorrow, Monday, that could mark a real bullish Signal - in my view:

BTC magic 44.5k (Apirl 2022)

For the moment the BITCOIN-chart- above looks very interesting. By ...

Disclosure upfront:
I am a "Binance-Believer" since the year 2018, when I made my first transaction on that Crypto-Platform.

Well, what I really wanted to say: "The current Binance-Chart looks juicy to me"


But please do your own Research first!

cheers Ralph

Disclaimer/Disclosure: Ralph ...

Bitcoin 4h-Chart (Pot. Inverse SKS)

NO FINANCIAL ADVICE, but please check the following chart! In German: Eine potentielle INVERSE Schulter-Kopf-Schulter Formation. AKA: "Inverse SKS"; Wirkt aktuell recht bullish:

Bitcoin - pot. Inverse SKS (30. April 2021)

Stay tuned ;-)

cheers Ralph

PancaceSwap (CAKE) near 40$

Upfront Info: I am a Hodler in PancakeSwap (CAKE), even when CAKE fell down into the high single digits-area back in March 2021. As long as CAKE stays above 30$ I guess, I will keep on "HODLING". Please also check the nice comparison...

PancakeSwap - Chart (29 April 2021)

...between the Total Value ...

PancakeSwap (DeFi)
new All-Time-High

Dear Readers. I am loving DeFi. It might be a risky space but it has some academic incentives to dive deep into the rabbit hole! And so far it really paid off (4me). PancakeSwap is hitting a new All-Time-High today. "CAKE"...

PancakeSwap_Chart 26th April 2021 (rG) the governance token ...

Venus Protocol (short "Venus")

Venus Protocol (short "Venus") is an algorithmic-based money market system designed to bring a complete decentralized finance-based lending and credit system onto Binance Smart Chain. Venus...

Venus: It is all about Interest or YIELD (April 2021)



DeFi (Dezentralized Finance :-)
Love it or Hate it

Money and finance have been around in one form or the other since the dawn of human civilization. Crypto is just the latest digital avatar. In upcoming years, we might see every financial service that we use...

TVL (Binance Smart Chain), April 2021Chart: Total ...

Mirror Protocol
The new way of Purchasing Tokenized Assets (Stocks, Cryptos, etc.)?

What are Mirrored Assets? (short Definition on >> MIR is the governance token of Mirror Protocol, a synthetic assets protocol built by Terraform Labs (TFL) on...

Mirror (April 2021), Strong Stuff (NO ADVICE!)

...the Terra blockchain.


Bitcoin-path until July 2021 (?)
Status now: 24th March 2021

Dear visitors! Bitcoin had a fantastic run since the beginning of the year. The cryptocurrency received some boosts by Elon Musk himself over the last weeks and months. Tesla now own Bitcoins! To get some idea about...

Bitcoin_March2021_potential_evolution_untilSummer2021 this ...

Ever thought about farming some yield from your Crypto-Hodlings?

Well, that might be a risky task.
But one, which I am happy to experiment around with.

I participated in the Bull run of Binance-coins (BNB) from the year 2018 onwards until now. I held some BNB-coins, when they were...

PancakeSwap - DYOR - risky stuff!


Krypto-Universum liegt aktuell > der 1Billionen-Dollar Schwelle

Grund genug, um zu sehen, wer sich auf den ersten Plätzen bzgl. Marktkapitalisierung so tummelt. Reminder: It is analogous to the free-float capitalization in the stock market. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply.

Bitcoin Krypto-Primus (Feb. 2021)


>> Stablecoins <<

Stablecoins are assets that have price stability characteristics that make it suitable to use as a unit of account and store of value, often pegged to a national currency. In recent months the liquidity in this market is gaining steam:

Stablecoins_history 2018_Jan2021

Currently the market cap ...

DeFi, what else?

"Coinbureau" is such a great treasure for every Average-Joe out there >> To learn for free anything you want to know about Crypto and Digital assets. Already in March 2020 Coinbureau was crazy about Dezentralized Finance:

Please listen to the video-section above (I ...

Binance coin

My technical target reached for the moment: which lies between 110 US-Dollar and 135 USD; Since we are still in an early inning (my best guess), many new outcomes seem possible. I will recheck the exact profit numbers of Binance within the next weeks...

Binance-coin (BNB) order to ...

UPDATE zu meinem Posting vom 13. Dez. 2018
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)-Kursentwicklung nun hier vom
Jan. 2015 bis 3. Jan. 2021

Bei Aktien versuche ich -grundsätzlich- einen langen Anlagehorizont einzuhalten. Bei exotischen Investments wie Kryptowährungen könnte man sich evtl. einen...

Bitcoin (BTC) Jan. 2015 bis Jan. 2021

...Anlagehorizont ...


Heute vormittags (Wiener/Europäischer Zeit) ist der Bitcoin-Kurs nun über 22.000 US-Dollar! Solange der Kurs über 20.000 USD verbleibt, bin ich guter Dinge und bleibe (natürlich) weiterhin investiert. Reminder: KEINE EMPFEHLUNG!

BBG-Snapshot - Bitcoin, Dec. 2021

Ich bin auf jeden Fall noch immer recht ...

Bitcoin and hurdles (Nov. 2020)

My best guess: No further comment needed, IF Bitcoin stays above 10,000 USD!

Bitcoin (Potential Hurdles, Nov. 2020)

Cheers Ralph

Disclosure: I am currently (as per 16th Nov. 2020) invested in BTC directly AND indirectly via certificates

Stelar returns :-)

Market Volatility is what can give you stellar returns

link / this article was posted circa 1 year ago:

p.s I like CZ ;-)

COT-Report (Large Speculators)

First, what is the COT report? The Commitment of Traders (COT) is a report published by the governing body of commodities trading in the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading...

GOLD COT-Report (Sep. 2020)

...Commission (CFTC). According to the CFTC's website, "The COT reports ...

Inverse SHS-pattern (?)

As the name suggests, this is the opposite of the well known head and shoulders (SHS) pattern - and as such, it indicates a bullish reversal. An inverse head and shoulders is formed when the price falls to a lower low in...

BTC inverse SHS-formation - Question Mark (Sep. 2020)

...a downtrend, then bounces and ...

BTC zwischen
12.500 und 9.200 USD

Die Sandwich-Zone für den Bitcoin ist mittelfristig mit den Marken 12.500 USD auf der Oberseite und 9.200 USD auf der Unterseite abgesteckt. In der Zwischenzeit spielen sich interessante Entwicklungen beim ETH-Preis und bei den DeFi-assets ab.

BTC - Sandwichposition (Sep. 2020)

DeFi ist ein ...

Supertrendindikator-Signal auf Wochenbasis?

Ein Indikator, der letztens an Popularität gewonnen hat, ist der Supertrend. Vielleicht liegt es nur am Namen, dass dieser zunehmend im Repertoire vieler privater Trader auftauchte...(?)

BTC magic 10,150 points (July 2020)

Basis des Supertrends ist ein gewichteter Mittelkurs ...

Bitcoin-Halving (Mai 2020)

Im Code der Bitcoin Blockchain ist festgehalten, dass alle 210.000 Blöcke ein Bitcoin Halving stattfindet. Die ersten beiden fanden in den Jahren 2012 und 2016 statt, nachdem der Bitcoin 2008 ins Leben gerufen wurde. Das nächste Halving...


...steht kurz bevor.


Bitcoin-Stats (Cryptocurrencies)
June/July 2019

In the last months and quarters the Bitcoin-price and the whole Digital-Assets universe found an intermediate bottom. So let's take a quick look at some statistics regarding bitcoin and its adoption (Bitcoin ATM-installations/"installed base").

Bitcoin-Stats (June/July 2019), Hash Rate, source: blockchain ...

BITCOIN bei ca. 10.000 USD
(Juni 2019)

Der Chart erinnert etwas an die NASDAQ aus dem Jahr 2000, mit dem darauf folgenden 16 Jahre lang währenden Hängebauch, um dann ein neues Allzeithoch zu erreichen. Das Jahr 2019 war bisher ganz stark vom Comeback des Bitcoin und...

Bitcoin bei ca. 10k (Juni 2019)

...auch des sonstigen ...

Fair Value (?)

Der Big Mac Index basiert auf der Theorie der Kaufkraftparität (KKP), die von David Ricardo im frühen 19. Jahrhundert entwickelt wurde. Es handelt sich hierbei um die Erwartung, dass sich die Wechselkurse auf lange Sicht einem..

EURUSD KKP Maerz 2019

...Punkt annähern, an dem sich die ...

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)-Kursentwicklung
Jan. 2015 bis 13. Dez. 2018

Bei Aktien versuche ich -grundsätzlich- einen langen Anlagehorizont einzuhalten. Bei exotischen Investments wie Kryptowährungen könnte man sich evtl. einen Anlagehorizont von 4 bis 8 Jahre vornehmen. Aktuell...

Bitcoin-Kursentwicklung Jan. 2015 bis 13. Dez. 2018

...habe ich im ...

Oil Demand
(in the years 2000 - 2015)

Let's track the world oil demand as another useful way to monitor the global economy. World crude oil usage rose to a record high of 89.5mbd in the year 2012 (Status: Sep. 2012 and 12 months before). While "Old World" demand remained depressed...

Oil Demand  (1987 until Sep. 2012) ...


Coinbase and Binance might be the most well known Cryptoexchanges as per June 2018; As most people know: Cryptocurrencies can be traded through cryptocurrency exchanges. These cryptocurrency exchanges are platforms through...

5 largest Crypto Exchanges (June 2018)

...which you can purchase ...

(1999 bis Mai 2018)

Im Monatschart des Währungspaares EURO / USD erkennt man schön die 200Monate-Linie, welche nun final als Widerstand gewirkt hat. Folgend der Aussagen von Hrn. Draghi bei der IWF-Tagung im April 2018 lenkte der Euro in einen...

EUR/USD - Chart (1999 bis Mai 2018), Mag. Ralph Gollner; Charting-tool:

...kurz- bis mittelfristigen ...

Crypto Portfolio (Jan. 2017 vs. May 2018)

If you applied several Risk Management measures on the way up throughout the last quarters your Crypto Portfolio may have had an equity curve like the one stated below (in EURO):

Crypto Portfolio (Hypothetical Jan. 2017 - 5th May 2018)

Good Luck
Reminder: The Cryptocurrency-Universe is a HIGH-RISK sector.

ETH (Magic USD 38 billion floor)

There is some kind of turnaround taking place in the last few days (weeks) in the cryptocurrencies-universe. I am holding again ETH and now also Bitcoin Cash. But still, Bitcoin is NOT part of my Crypto-Holdings - yet -

Ethereum Chart (May 2017 - 20th April 2018)

In the chart above one can clearly see ...

Ein sehr heisses Eisen ("tricky situation")

Die Türkei schuldet ausländischen Gläubigern (per Q1-2018) 450 Milliarden Dollar, von denen 276 Milliarden Dollar in in Dollar und Euro denominiert sind. Der türkische Entwicklungsminister Lütfi Elvan...

Türkei Leistungsbilanz-Defizit (2017)

...sagte der Zeitung Milliyet, dass ...

(Euro / Schweizer Franken)

Der Euro nimmt (wieder) mehr Momentum gegenüber seinem "Nachbarn", den Schweizer Franken, auf (siehe die stark ansteigenden Durchschnittslinien EMA, DEMA und TEMA, jeweils auf 50-Tagesbasis).

EURCHF (Momentum, April 2018)

Es bleibt - wie immer - spannend im globalen Währungshandel.

BTC-Seasonality (2010 - 2017)

Das "Bitcoin - Krypto-Team" ist recht praktisch unterwegs...hier einer ihrer Artikel! In medias res: Aus saisonaler Sicht wird es für Bitcoin nun besonders spannend. Welcher Börsenmonat weist die höchste Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit auf, wann drohen stärkere...

BTC-Seasonality (2019 - 2017)



Coinbase and Binance might be the most well known Cryptoexchanges as per March 2018; As most people know: Cryptocurrencies can be traded through cryptocurrency exchanges. These cryptocurrency exchanges are platforms through...

Binance Coin Chart (bis inkl. 24. März 2018)

...which you can purchase or sell ...

Bitcoin (Magic Level, "To B or NOT to b" ?)

Since there are many theories in the Crypto-Market on how to value Bitcoin & Co. one has to find ones way through that jungle. Technicals could provide some sort of help for ones Risk-Management, Position-Sizing, etc.

BTCUSD (Magic level > 6,666 USD), March 2018

We will have to see, if the ...

"Magic Fibo-levels" for the (near?) future

9.200 points @ 23.6%-Fibonacci-level, 11.230 @ 38.2%-level, 12.880 @ 50%-level, 14.540 @ 61.8%-level. Sustainable breaks to the upside -a break of each level- needed, if a further rise can be anticipated...Please also check the Moving...

Bitcoin ( "magic" Fibo-levels, Status: 4th March 2018)


ETH (Ethereum < USD 556)

Well, the "digital asset" Ethereum (ETH) is now below the "short-term" support-level of USD 556. The next step to see will be, if the level of USD 555 (see daily candle of 6th Feb. 2018) can be re-gained again within the next days or weeks and...

ETH (magic-level @ ca. 555 USD ?!), April 2018

...eventually be ...

Litecoin (LTC), Downtrend-Break

Litecoin Definition: What actually is Litecoin? Well, Litecoin is a digital currency (often these are also called crypto-currencies) which is not backed by any country's central bank or government. Still, like other currencies, Litecoins can be...

Litecoin (Triangle, 14th Feb. 2018)

...traded ...

DASH (Trendkanal)

Jeder "Dash-Preis" > 400 USD lässt noch "nach mehr" hoffen. Allerdings ist wohl das Wichtigste für diese Kryptowährung, dass Niveaus über 200 USD gehalten werden, um nicht -KURZFRISTIG- von einem totalen Crash sprechen zu müssen. Interessanterweise notierte...

Dash (Trendkanal), Feb. 2018

...DASH ...

Bitcoin @ magic 10k-level

Let's see if this psychological level will hold as support, or if it will be cut through like butter.

Bitcoin - magic 10k-level

This week is far from being over (weekend also still to come by ; -)
Therefore the weekly candle is still "in the making" !

Disclaimer/Disclosure: Ralph Gollner ...

Cryptocurrencies Total-Market Cap ("now")

The cryptocurrency "Bitcoin (BTC)" is still number one - following the units issued times current market price per BTC. But there are many other cryptocrrencies around. In total they now make up more than USD 680 bn in Market Value:

Cryptocurrencies Total-Market Cap (14th Jan. 2018)

From the chart ...

EUR/USD zw. 1,20 und PPP (?)

Egal, wo sich der "faire value" des EUR/USD mittel- bis langfristig befinden sollte, der langjährige Trendkanal im Chart sollte doch klar ersichtlich sein. Sollte die PPP ("Purchasing Power Parity") bei ca. 1,28 oder gar 1,30 (etc.) liegen - so müsste vorerst...

EURUSD zwischen 1,20 und PPP (12. Jan. 2018) ...

ETH (Chart-update)

The "Fibonacci-Framework" from August 2017 (my elder posting) is still in place. Furthermore I updated the scenario for "my" potential Risk-Zone! As long as the Ethereum/USD price stays above 670 USD - I should not be feeling overly stressed..

ETH (Chart-update, 7. Jan. 2018)

Disclosure / Disclaimer: ...

Blockchain Transactions
(Number and Volume)

Bitcoin Transactions# and USD-Volume (eventually NVT Ratio)
♦ Daily Transactions (please find the "Live-Counter" under following link: )
♦ Recheck also the USD volume transmitted through the blockchain since "its launch"

BTC transactions (Jan. 2016 - 22nd Dec. 2017), Expon. Moving Average


Bitcoin - Kleiner Black Friday
(22. Dez. 2017)

Der heutige Tag hat nicht nur in den Finanz-Medien, sondern auch innerhalb der "Digital-Currencies Community" zu heftigen Ausschlägen geführt. Nicht nur der Bitcoin, auch die meisten anderen Alt-Coins sind teilweise zig-Prozent abwärts...

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Chart and HIGHer Risk-Zone (22nd Dec. 2017), rG


Ethereum (new All-Time-High)

Ethereum, the 2nd most popular cryptocurrency, surged by over 30% in the last 24 hours to reach a current price of over USD 620 today (12th Dec. 2017). Today's surge might also have to do with the fact that the ethereum network recorded its highest number...

Ethereum (Transactions, Dec. 2017, new ATH)


Ethereum (23rd Nov. 2017 until Xmas)

Ethereum is a decentralised platform for applications. It is powered by Ether - a cryptocurrency, which is in turn powered by the Blockchain technology. Applications are built with the use of smart contracts - computer algorithms which...

Ethereum-Chart (23rd Nov. 2017, "before Christmas")

...execute ...

Historische DOW/GOLD-Ratio

Markante Hochpunkte hat es in folgenden Jahren gegeben: 1928, 1965 und 1999
Die DOW/GOLD-Ratio markierte in diesen Jahren folgende markante Hochpunkte: ca. 15, ca. 27, ca. 40
Aktuelle DOW/GOLD-Ratio im Q4-2017: ca. 18 (s. Chart)

DOW/GOLD - Ratio (Q4-2008 - 1. Nov. 2017)

Platzen von Blasen / Gründe ( = ...

EUR/USD - PPP (1999 - Sep. 2017)

Euro/US-Dollar-Wechselkurs und "fairer" Wert; "Fairer Wert" definiert nach Kaufkraftparität (PPP) der OECD; +/- eine und zwei Standardabweichungen. Währungen finden grundsätzlich in langen Zyklen retour zu ihrem wahren inneren Wert:

EURUSD - PPP (1999 - Sep. 2017)


Bitcoin (BTC/USD) & Fibonacci
(Status: 6. Okt. 2017)

Self-fulfilling Prophecy (?) und Fibonacci-Zahlen: Eine unendliche Zahlenreihe, die mit 0 und 1 beginnt. Jede weitere Zahl entspricht dabei der Summe der beiden vorangegangenen Zahlen. Damit lautet der Anfang der Zahlenreihe...

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) und Fibonacci (Status: 6. Okt. 2017)

...0, 1, 1, ...

10fold = Bubble?
(what do you say 'bout China?)

No, the following chart is NOT Bitcoin and also not the GDP of China between the years 1990 and 2005. Both of which increased tenfold within different timeframes. Bitcoin rose from 500 USD to ca. 5,000 in a couple of some quarters; Nasdaq:

Nasdaq-Composite rising 10fold from 500 to ca. 5,000

You ...

EUR/USD (theoretisch) seit dem Jahr 1953

EUR/USD bewegt sich seit dem Zerfall des Bretton-WoodsSystems fixer Wechselkurse Anfang der 1970er Jahre in langen Wellen. Zwischen Hoch und Tief dieser Wellen liegen zwischen fünf und neun Jahre. In diesem Zeitraum bewegt sich der Wechselkurs grob...

EUR/USD, Kurse seit 1953 (theoretische Rückrechnung), Status: Aug. 2017 ...

Dow Jones Ind. Average & EUR/USD
(2017 / Year-to-date Entwicklung)

Das Protokoll zur letzten EZB-Zinssitzung enthielt interessante Hinweise auf die aktuelle Einschätzung und die weitere Vorgehensweise der EZB. So wurde die Aufwertung des Euro gegenüber dem USD als eine Normalisierung nach...

Dow Jones Ind. Average and EUR/USD ...

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

Not only to me, it seems obvious that more of the largest corporations and biggest names are getting behind Ethereum. This is mostly due to the technological advantage that Ethereum has as one of the most widely used blockchain based technology platforms and...

Ethereum (ETH/USD), Chart (12. Aug. 2017)

...the ...

(Purchasing Power Parity)

The US dollar might have more room to fall (?)...The USD has been going nowhere but down recently and could be due for a near term reversal or consolidation. However, the fundamentals driving the weakness in the USD persist,...

EUR/USD - PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), where could it be? (July 2017)

...namely: monetary ...

BITCOIN up OR down (who  knows...)

Bitcoin got a vote of confidence from Switzerland's legendary banking system (as per 12th July 2017). -) Falcon Private Bank said on 12th July 2017 it received approval from a Swiss regulator to offer bitcoin products. This was the first time the Swiss...

Bitcoin (Up or Down), WHO KNOWS ?! (Ralph Gollner, 20. Juli 2017)


@ or near magic 1.15 - level

Let's see, if the Euro can manage to climb above the 1.15 level (vs. the USD) for several weeks or if the currency pair is hitting its ceiling here for the medium term...

EUR/USD (near magic 1.15 level), July 2017


Sofern WTI-Öl über einem Level von USD 40 verbleibt, kann man ruhig bleiben und es besteht kein Grund zur Panik. Sofern jedoch WTI Öl per Monatsende unter USD 40 notieren sollte, könnten Einige "Panik" und/oder Angst kriegen...

WTI-Oel - langfristige relevante/interessante Marken (Status: 21. Juni 2017)

(Jan. 2015 - 20. Jan. 2017)

Folgend der Chart des EUR/USD im Zeitraum Jan. 2015 bis inkl. 20. Januar 2017. Hier die Monatssicht (Kerzenchart); Somit lässt sich gut erkennen, dass die magischen 1,08 noch nicht erreicht wurden - daher noch "unter dem Wasser"-Streifen (auch < 1,11).

EURUSD (Zeitraum: Jan. 2015 - 20. Jan. 2017) ...

GOLD - Basiswissen (Sep. 2016)

Was hat den Gold-Kurs derart stark getrieben im bisherigen Jahresverlauf 2016? Inzwischen gibt es dafür eine simple Antwort: die Nachfrage. Nun mag das vielleicht banal klingen, weil doch fast immer Angebot und Nachfrage an der Börse den Preis bestimmen.

Goldnachfrage nach Verwendungszweck (Q3-2015 - Q2-2016)

Doch ...

GOLD - Seasonality (30year-range)

From the 20 year-charts of Gold one may take following implicit/possible buy/sell-"rules" /Weakness and strength points. The 5-year to 30-year seasonal studies show following weakness points of gold: Mid March, Mid June and to lower extend Mid October.

Gold seasonal Factors (monthly, 1984 - 2016)

On ...

USDJPY (Risk-on versus Risk-off)
HY1-2016 (Risk-off indication maybe over?)

RoRo USDJPY (HY1-2016)

link on "RoRo":,-risk-off

USD/JPY (1995 - Q1/2016)
Langfristchart und Status April 2016

Der Japanische Yen hat seit Beginn der neuen wirtschaftspolitischen Ausrichtung durch Premier S. Abe im Jahr 2012 bis April 2016 zum USD um insgesamt ca. 40 %, zum EUR um ca. 32 %, abgewertet.

USD/JPY 101,111 (magic "moments"), 1995 - April 2016Big Picture/JFD-Brokers:  ...

EUR/USD (2015-11th March 2016)

Important to know about the seasonality of the USD in US-election years (pl. see below); Still: One has to remember, that the USD showed real strength in Q4/2014 and also into the year 2015! From July 2016 onwards, the volatility may begin to rise (again).

EUR/USD 2015-03/2016 (src: tradingeconomics)As ...

Long-Term Chart synthetic EUR/USD

The Euro was only introduced as a currency on the 1st January of 1999. However, synthetic historical prices going back much further can be modeled if we consider a weighted average of the previous currencies (source: tradingeconomics):

EUR/USD LT-Chart 1958-03/2016 (tradingeconomics)


EUR/USD 2015 bis Feb. 2016 (Wochenchart)

EUR/USD2015 bis Feb. 2016 (Wochenchart)

Oil (WTI-Crude), Long-Term (1978-2016)

WTI-Crude Oil hält sich über dem Level von 30,66 USD pro Fass (Möglichkeit zur Stabilisierung). Sollte der Pries jedoch unter die 30,66 USD-Marke -per Wochenschluss- sinken, könnte es wieder brenzlig werden (Status: 24. Feb. 2016).

WTI-Crude Oil, chart 1978-2016-Feb.; chart-source: tradingeconomics ...

Gold-Turnaround im Q1-2016?

Goldpreis-Snapshot (8. Feb. 2016)

USD/JPY & US-Stock Market CORRELATION (2015, 29th Jan. 2016), BOJ/neg. interest rate-decision

There is some correlation between the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) and the US-Stock-Market (S&P 500), should be obvious: (S&P 500 versus  USD/JPY)

The Bank of Japan on Friday (29th Jan. 2016) became the latest central bank to ...

Oil (china demand/global supply), Status: Jan. 2016

EIA estimates that global oil inventories increased by 1.9 million b/d in 2015, marking the second consecutive year of inventory builds. Most important: DEMAND is still ok (my opinion), the extreme oversupply is the "problem".

Demand/Supply Balance Oil 2015, 2016source:  ...

EUR/USD & Purchasing Power Parity (01/2016)

THE Big Mac index was invented by The Economist in 1986 as a lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their “correct” level.

Big Mac index (Jan. 2016), The Economist

As can be seen in graph above a currency always floats (!) in the long run (!) around its "fair value". From the ...

Commodities Index (1981 - 2016)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index; Comment in "gold" by Clive Maund:

CRB Index (up to Jan. 2016), comment by Clive MaundThe Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index (TR/CC CRB) is a commodity futures price index. It was first calculated by Commodity Research Bureau, ...

EUR/USD - Trend-Snapshot (28. Okt. 2015)

EURUSD Trend per 28. Okt. 2015

EUR/USD Langfristchart (1980 bis Okt. 2015)

Der Langfristchart von sagt mehr als tausend Worte. Der aktuelle Bereich zwischen 1,09 und ca. 1,15 hat eine hohe Relevanz bzgl. der weiteren Entwicklung, sofern das Währungspaar (nachhaltig) darüber, oder darunter ausbricht. ...

Gold-Stabilisierung oder gar Rally im Q4-2015?

Gold per Okt. 2015 (Mag. Ralph Gollner)

weekly recheck EUR/USD for a global portfolio investor

Folgend ein täglich aktualisierter Chart vom EUR/USD-Währungspaar:

Es geht hauptsächlich darum, die Entwicklung des EUR gegenüber dem USD im Hinblick auf die mittelfristige Zukunft abschätzen zu können. Währungen können, im Gegensatz zu ...

Kupfer / Dr. Copper (Sep. 2015)

Wenn Ärzte schlechte Nachrichten überbringen müssen, haben sie stets zwei Möglichkeiten: die sanfte oder die harte Tour. Beides hat manchmal seine Vorteile. Dr. Copper hat sich nun gerade mal wieder für die harte Variante entschieden. Schnell und heftig ...

Hedge Funds are holding First-Ever Gold Net-Short Position (July 2015)

After being net long all the way from USD 1900 to USD 1100, Bloomberg reports Hedge Funds Are Holding First-Ever Gold Net-Short Position.

Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold prices since the ...

Gold Seasonality (check out the 2nd half !)
source: (30years history up to 2012)

As Dimitri Speck wrote in 2003 on the site there was no 'Gold: Second Half Increase' during the second half of the 1990s. Gold fell during those years. More, it is being ...

Raiffeisen RESEARCH (please click on picture for free download !)



a possible medium-term Turnaround-Signal in EUR/USD (see weekly chart below) ?

Der Bereich von ca. 122 markiert ein wichtiges Niveau, welches sich bereits von den Tiefpunkten des Jahres 1998 herleitet und in den Jahren 2005 bis 2007 mehrfach getestet und bestätigt wurde. Werden solche Charmarken nachhaltig gebrochen (nach oben, wie nach unten) kann dies ein starkes ...

EURO as per 29th Aug. 2014
EUR 1,27 as first target (ein Chart sagt mehr als tausend Worte !!)

weekly chart, short moving averages (SMA) on weekly basis, 20 & 40 say everything (my opinion)
red circle: SELL SIGNAL, green circle: BUY SIGNAL

(KISS = Keep It Short & Simple ;-)

Chart, daily and ...