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Oil (china demand/global supply)

Oil (china demand/global supply), Status: Jan. 2016

EIA estimates that global oil inventories increased by 1.9 million b/d in 2015, marking the second consecutive year of inventory builds. Most important: DEMAND is still ok (my opinion), the extreme oversupply is the "problem".

Demand/Supply Balance Oil 2015, 2016source: https://www.iea.org

This oversupply has contributed to oil prices reaching the lowest monthly average level since mid-2004. Inventories are forecast to rise by an additional 0.7 million b/d in 2016, before the global oil market becomes relatively balanced in 2017. source for text: https://www.eia.gov

Short recap: World demand growth of 1.2 mb/d is forecast in 2016, as first signs of a slowdown appear. Early indicators for 4Q15 show growth easing to 1.3 mb/d y-o-y, from a 3Q15 peak of 2.2 mb/d. The resulting annual growth of 1.8 mb/d for 2015 is led by China, the US, India and - somewhat surprisingly - Europe.

China's 2016 oil demand forecast has been raised due to higher gasoline numbers. Chinese oil demand is expected to grow 420,000 bpd in 2016, compared to an estimated 600,000 bpd last year, according to Standard Chartered, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a similar drop in its most recent monthly report. source: http://www.reuters.com

Please pay special attention to the seasonality in the Oil-demand in the chinese economy:

China Total Products Oil demand 2015

Although the economic outlook grew more precarious in 2015, Chinese consumers maintained sufficiently high confidence levels to stimulate escalating vehicle usage - both road and air - supporting robust gasoline (see Heady vehicle sales support strong Chinese gasoline demand growth) and jet fuel deliveries. Chinese gasoline demand growth averaged 10.4% (or 230 kb/d) y-o-y through the first ten months of 2015 and jet 19.1% (or 100 kb/d).

recheck again a full article on China/Oil: https://www.iea.org