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Magisches Trio ("Magic 15k")

Runde Marken üben auf Marktteilnehmer oft eine magische Anziehungskraft aus >> bzgl. Kauf-, Verkaufsignale. Im Folgenden habe ich die runden Marken vom DAX-Perf.Index, von Amazon und Google einfach addiert; Notfalls sehe ich einen...

magic 15k for the 3 musketeers (DAX, Amazon, Google), 12th Oct. 2017


...ersten Support bei ca. 14.030 ? (if needed). Die Support-Berechnung würde ein Ergebnis folgender Kombination sein: 12.220 (Punkte im DAX) + 910 (AMZN in USD) + 900 (GOOGL in USD) = 14.030

Disclaimer/Disclosure: Ralph Gollner hereby discloses that he directly owns securities of Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), as per ...

"CASH-levels"
BAML survey of global fund managers

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined USD 600bn...

Cash-Levels (BofAML 2001 - July 2017)

...in assets. The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal.

Status for 15th Aug. 2017:
How are the international fund ...

Gedanken am Vortag der US-Präsidentschaftswahl
(Montag, 7. Nov. 2016; 18:04 MEZ)

Die Börsen diesseits, als auch jenseits des Atlantiks, also in Europa und U.S.A., sowie die asiatischen Börsen sind grundsätzlich alle nach mehreren (!!) Verlusttagen in Folge tlw. dick im Plus. Höchste Zeit somit, Kostolany zu bemühen:

„Ich weiß nicht, was morgen sein wird, aber ich weiß, was gestern war und heute ist, und das ist schon sehr viel.“

„Hat man Papiere, so zittert man, sie könnten fallen; hat man keine, so zittert man, sie könnten steigen.“

„Über das Wochenende hat man Ruhe und Zeit, ...

magischer Punktestand (10.000 im DAX)

oft gesehen, oft überwunden...

DAX 30 - 10.000 Punkte, April 2016

Das Kursziel im Kopf (zwei wichtige Hinweise in diesem Zusammenhang):

♦ Die -für Viele- magischen 10.000 Punkte haben an sich eigentlich keinen Wert, aber das Ganze lässt sich psychologisch erklären: Menschen setzen sogenannte Anker. Das tun sie bei runden Zahlen, bei Kaufkursen und erst recht bei Allzeithochs. Und an diesen Ankern orientieren sie sich.

Experten sprechen von Verankerungsheuristik. Heuristiken sind mentale Abkürzungen und Strategien, die auf den eigenen Erfahrungen aufbauen und die das Gehirn ...

UBS DERI Indicator dreht auf LONG (positiv)

Statusbetrachtung per 19. März 2016; Sowohl aus der globalen Sicht der Aktienmärkte, als auch von Emerging-Markets-Seite her gibt es positive Signale durch die UBS DERI Indikatoren ("Long" seit Anfang März 2016):

UBS DERI Risk Indicators (incl. GEM), Status: March 2016
Quelle: http://keyinvest-de.ubs.com/marktuebersicht/ubs-deri-risk-indikator

Commitment of traders data for S&P 500 Stock Index on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Commitment of Traders - S&P 500 Stock Index - Futures and Options - Percent of Open Interest
Total Reportable Shorts - % of Open Interest (for S&P 500 as per 8th March 2016: 50.5)

S&P 500 Total Reportable Shorts - % of OI (History up to 03/2016)
data: https://www.quandl.com

"Short" shares are borrowed and then sold in the hope that the share price will fall before the borrowed shares have to be purchased and replaced. A high level of short interest could indicate that a share price is ready to fall, but can also be a hedge, or counterbet, for an investor who has gone ...

Investor Movement Index (IMX)

The Investor Movement Index, or the IMX, is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of retail investors.

IMX (behavior-based index, TD Ameritrade)source: https://www.tdameritrade.com/research/imx.page

Investor Movement Index Summary for Feb. 2016:

TD Ameritrade clients had slightly less exposure to the equity market in February, as the IMX decreased to 4.44.
For a second month, volatility in the overall market outpaced the volatility of many of the widely held positions in TD Ameritrade client accounts. The relative stability of these ...

Strong Buy vs. Strong Sell - Indicator
source: iVIEWMarkets.com

The Strong Buy to Strong Sell ratio is a properietary quantative rating of the S&P 500 universe. The ranking of the securities strength is comprised of multiple factors with statistical price series being the main calculation.

Strong Buy vs. Strong Sell - indicator (iVIEWMarkets.com)source: http://www.iviewmarkets.com/marketinternals

BOFA Fund Manager Survey (Jan/Feb. 2016)
Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation

Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, the BAML survey of global fund managers is one of the better as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes.

BOFA FMS Cash Balance Jan./Feb. 2016

The managers covered by the Survey oversee a combined 600bn USD in assets. The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities fall in price, allocations to cash go higher and allocations to equities go lower as investors become bearish, setting up a buy signal. When prices rise, ...

Oil - (final) Morning Star?
(daily candle formation Wed., 10th Feb. 2016 - Friday, 12th Feb. 2016)

US Oil, Feb. 2016 (Morningstar pattern? final reversal?), Ralph Gollner
As can be seen in the following example a MORNING STAR is characerised by 3 candles, in which the doji (the candle inbetween the 3-candle-formation) represents the indecision of the market participants and the 3rd candle the final decision to the upside! Psychological wrap-up: After an initial capitulation (1st candle), indecision is marked on the 2nd-trading-candle to be followed-up by a confirmation candle; Of course one has to follow the subsequent candles to this formation, ...

Super Bowl Indicator

You may not know it, but the winner of this year’s Super Bowl may be a predictor of how the stock market performs in 2016. A Carolina Panthers' victory would lead to a rising Dow Jones Ind. Average in 2016 - in theory...

helmet carolina panthers (Runners-up 2015)There’s a long and kind of complicated history to the method - dubbed the “Super Bowl predictor” or “indicator” - that goes back to when there were separate football leagues, but now it boils down to this:

Short & in theory ;-)
If a National Football Conference team wins the Super Bowl, then the Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise in 2016. If an ...

Fear & Greed Index (short Video/Definition)

The last time I made a posting about the Fear Index it stood at only 3!! on 25th Aug. 2015. From that time onwards the S&P 500 stopped its sharp Short-Term-drop and made a quick Short-Term-turnaround to the upside (Status on 22nd Jan. 2016=14).

 the daily updated fear index can be found here: http://money.cnn.com

Patterns (Muster / Charttechnik)

Chartmuster: Die wichtigsten Formationen

Charttechnik ChartmusterQuelle: http://3.bp.blogspot.com

Wer an der Börse dauerhaft Erfolg haben möchte, ist auf vernünftige Handelssysteme angewiesen. Diese Regeln zeigen, wann der beste Ein- und Ausstiegszeitpunkt für einen Handel gekommen ist – denn niemand wird dauerhaft zu den tiefsten Kursen kaufen und zu Höchstkursen verkaufen können.

Einigen gilt die Charttechnik als Wundermittel, andere sehen darin nur ein „Malen nach Zahlen“, aber der Kern der Charttechnik ist mit sehr hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit gewinnbringend.

Charles H. Dow: ...

Is the Old Continent still a contrarian play? (July 2015)
European fear may be profitable for greedy investors (...as Analysts hate European stocks)

Analysts hate Europe (2015 Q2)as Michael Brush http://www.marketwatch.com/Journalists/Michael_Brush is writing about Europe being a contrarian play: There’s one telling measure that suggests it still is: European stock analysts are the most bearish they have been in the past 20 years. That is a state of affairs typically followed by outsized gains.

How negative? Only 41% of stock ratings by sell-side analysts are “buys,” according to Barclays Research. Amazingly, that ...

Home-builder confidence strong (> 50)
source: Marketwatch

A gauge of confidence among home builders remained at 60 in July, the strongest reading in almost a decade, according to National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo data released today (16th July 2015).

“This month’s reading is in line with recent data showing stronger sales in both the new and existing home markets as well as continued job growth,” said David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist.

NAHB previously estimated June’s reading at 59.
-) Confidence results > 50 signal that home-construction companies are optimistic about ...

It is payback time for Greece in 2015 (faz.net)
...besonders Juli, August, September könnte ein heisser Tanz auf dem Vulkan werden!

GR-debt 2015

Bildquelle: http://media1.faz.net

Related Articles

Some of us are highly loss averse, but in general we’re all averse to losses to some degree. Empirical estimates find that losses are felt between two and two-and-a-half as strongly as gains. Thus the disutility of losing $100 is at least twice the utility of gaining $100. Evenutally loss ...

Anchoring (heuristic)

Anchoring is a particular form of priming effect whereby initial exposure to a number serves as a reference point and influences subsequent judgments about value. The process usually occurs without our awareness (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and sometimes it occurs when ...

Cognitive biases (incl. the Snake Bite Effect)

T.W. Pitchers’ Snake Bite...are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics (behavioral finance).

Although the reality of these ...

Fear & Greed (Index)

The last time the Index was near such low readings (3) was during the last correction in the US Financial markets, occuring in Oct. 2014. That time it took the index about one week to get out of that negative sentiment (such a quick turnaround may not be the standard).

Fear & Greed Index (CNN Money)

...

Dow Jones (IA) Trendbreite-Oszillator (kfr. MarktUNTERtreibung ?)

Vereinfacht gesagt wird mit diesem Oszillator die Marktbreite im Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gemessen.

Marktbreite-Oszillator DJIA (aktuelle Anwendung von DAS BOERSENBUCH)

Allgemein: Sofern eine Aktie über dem 200-Tage-Durchschnitt (SMA200) notiert, wird von einer guten Trendstärke ...

Love-Panic Sentiment (Feb. 2016)

Love panic is a sentiment indicator created by BNP and gives an idea if the equity market is in a phase that is either love, neutral, and panic. This is a contrarian indicator so a high reading would be considered too much love which can signal a market high.

Love-Panic Market Timing Indicator (BNP) ...

Oxytocin & Co. (Fear & Gier)
Stichworte: Nucleus Accumbens, Dopamin, Oxytocin, Adrenalin, Kontrollverlust

"Unser Gehirn ist süchtig nach Belohnungen"

Wer Geld gespart hat, überlegt, wie er es vermehren kann, etwa an der Börse. Aber unser Hirn kann nicht mit Geld umgehen, findet der ehemalige ...

Recency Bias (Q1/2016)

Recency Bias. We are all prone to recency bias, meaning that we tend to extrapolate recent events into the future indefinitely. Following the January 2016-sell-off period:

Q1/2016 Market Sell-Off (quote)The peak recommended stock weighting came just after the peak of the internet bubble in early 2001 ...

Mister Market (Psychogram)

In the investment world, we were first introduced to Mr. Market by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book, The Intelligent Investor. Graham’s mentee, Warren Buffett, still calls this book "by far the best book on investing ever written."

Further he states that "chapters 8 ...

Bubbles (comparison years 1721 versus 2000)
South Sea Stock versus NASDAQ-Comp.

Bubbles can hit anyone! For practitioners of Schadenfreude, seeing high-profile investors losing their shirts is always amusing. But for the true connoisseur, the finest expression of the art comes...

Soth Sea Stock (Sir I. Newton), 1718-1721

...when a ...

Künstliche Intelligenz
Roboter vermehren das Geld

Wer den Namen Bernhard Langer hört, denkt vermutlich zuerst an Deutschlands berühmtesten Golfspieler. Etliche Anleger kennen aber noch einen ­anderen Bernhard Langer - er ist Fachmann für computergestützte Anlagestrategien.

Bernhard LangerBild-quelle:  ...

Fear & Greed Index (three indicators selected)
post Brexit (26th June 2016)

Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. So what emotion is driving the market now? CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index makes it clear.

VIX "Extreme Fear" (24th June 2016)

They look ...

Wissen ist nicht gleich "wissen"

Intelligenz bzw. Schläue spielt für uns in der Arbeitswelt eine wichtige Rolle. Doch der höchste Intelligenzquotient und das größte Allgemeinwissen bringen nichts, wenn nicht danach gehandelt wird. „Dumm ist der, der dummes tut“, sagt Forrest Gump...

forrest Gump (dumm ist der, der Dummes tut)

...in ...

BOFA Fund Manager Survey (July 2016)
Cash levels at a 15-year high

Despite the post-Brexit market rally, fund managers have gotten even more wary of taking risks. Following Long-Term chart still shows the elder, lower reading of 5.6%, the most recent reading is now 5.8%.

Cash-Balance fund managers (BOFA), HY1/2016

The S&P 500 has ...

Viele Crashgurus unterwegs (Aug. 2016)

Aktuelle Stimmen aus der Börsenwelt (Mitte Aug. 2016):
-) Experten bezweifeln, dass der DAX 30 seine Rally nach dem Jahreshoch fortsetzen wird.
-) Das Jahreshoch des DAX 30 ist kaum von Bedeutung.
-) Experten geht die Rally zu schnell...

Berkshire Hathaway (Sep. 2013 - Aug. 2016)

-) Kurse haben sich ...

Einige Todsünden des DURCHSCHNITTSANLEGERS!

Ausschweifung, Maßlosigkeit, Habgier, Faulheit, Zorn, Neid und Hochmut. Die 7 Todsünden lassen sich auch auf das Anlageuniversum übertragen. FundResearch und Aberdeen Asset Management zeigen warnende Beispiele, die jeder Investor beherzigen sollte.

...

Investor Movement Index (IMX)

The Investor Movement Index, or the IMX, is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of retail investors. The IMX saw its largest ever single month increase in August as volatility hit a two-year low!

Investor Movement Index / behavior-based index (created by TD Ameritrade), Aug. 2016

TD ...

Fear & Greed (43 versus 69)

Now, that the Fear & Greed Index of http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed has fallen below the "50-points-threshold" this could give the markets the chance to breathe through for regaining momentum for the later months of the year 2016.

Fear & Greed Index (43 as per 9th Sep. 2016)

As can be seen from the ...

BOFA Fund Manager Survey (Oct. 2016)
Cash Allocations are Close to 15-Year Highs

Cash levels jumped from 5.5% in September to 5.8% in October 2016. Investors' average cash balance was last this high in July 2016 (post-Brexit vote) and in Fall 2001.

BOFA - Global Fund Manager-average cash balance (Oct. 2016)

More precise: The share of cash hasn't been ...

LGT Private Banking Report 2016

Studie im Auftrag von LGT; Durchführung: Abteilung für Asset Management der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz Leitung Univ.-Prof. Dr. Teodoro D. Cocca. Ziel: Befragung zum Kundenverhalten von Private-Banking-Kunden in Österreich, Deutschland und der Schweiz.

Asset Allocation Österreich (2014, 2015, 2016) "Aktienquote" ...

Risikobereitschaft (Korrelation mit Geburtsjahr, subjektive Einschätzung), Mag. Ralph Gollner (2016)

Behavioral Finance versus starrer Regulierungs-Wut?! Plausible/"Korrekte" Einschätzung vom Risiko und Wissen um die eigene Risikoaversion sind bei der Geldanlage unverzichtbare Bausteine, um eine passende mittel- bis langfristige Strategie erstellen zu können, die zur individuellen Person ...

Investing in the Rearview Mirror
(Hindsight-Bias)

"In the business world, the rear view mirror is always clearer than the windshield." W. Buffett; "You can't see the future through a rearview mirror" Peter Lynch; "Too often, investors are more inclined to look at the rearview mirror...

Investing in the Rearview Mirror (Hindsight-Bias)

...

Positive Gallup Surveys (Nov./Dec. 2016)

-) Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index at highest level since January 2008
-) Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index jumps to 9-year high

Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index (1996 - 2016)


Individual investor optimism jumped to a nine-year high in November 2016, according to the Wells ...

Shiny, happy people (!?)
Optimistic Individual Investors

The American Association of Individual Investors is regularly asking its members for feedback on their surveys. At the start of the year they asked following, more focused: the possible annual return of the S&P 500; But first:

AAAI survey (Outlook for 2017?), Q&A

Only 21% ...

Emotions and DAX-Index
(Q4-2014 - Q4-2016)

A team of personal trainers, scientists and nutritionists can design the most sophisticated diet and exercise plan but it will have no chance of success if it is impractical for most people to follow.

Emotions and DAX-Index (Q4-2014 - Q4-2016)

Therefore it is of utmost importance to ...

Marktstruktur, Marktbreite
(Phasen A bis E)

Die Aktienmärkte befinden sich evtl. noch immer in einer Transitionsphase (C-Struktur). Diese kann in einen Bullenmarkt münden, wenn es zu einer positiven Überraschung kommt, wie z.B. zu einer technologischen Innovation, die...

Markstruktur/-en A-E (Quelle: unifinanz)

...ähnliche ...

Consumer Sentiment vs. S&P 500

I created a chart comparing the Michigan Consumer Sentiment versus the U.S. Stock market (S&P 500) since the last recession (2008/2009). For the moment (Q1-2017) it seems that the famous "Animal spirits" have taken over...

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment versus S&P 500 (2008-Dec. 2016)

The final reading of the University ...

Stock Newsletter Sentiment
(HSNSI, Mark Hulbert)

Stock-market timers grow cautious, and that's good for equities. Market tops are usually characterized by stubbornly held bullishness, but that’s not what we're seeing today. Stock-market timers have been turning remarkably cautious. It's...

HSNSI Stock Newsletter Sentiment (Mark Hulbert), Dec. 2014 - Jan. 2017

...

Cash Indicator and other great stuff from BofAML
(Jan./Feb. 2017)

The BofAML Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is a monthly survey of 200-250 primarily long-only investors. One of the key questions in this survey asks for cash balance as % of assets under management. A low cash balance indicates...

Global FMS Cash Indicator (until Jan. 2017)

...

Why Invest in Women?

Research shows that companies that embrace gender diversity on their boards and in management often experience improved performance and profitability as a result. Consider the following: Invest in companies with women in CEO, board, or senior level positions, thereby...

Why Invest in Women? ...

"Made in Germany"
ist das beliebteste Label der Welt

Für mich ist es glasklar: Warren Buffet hat einen Home-Bias (gerechtfertigt oder nicht will ich nicht beurteilen). Haben wir in Österreich & Deutschland auch einen Home-Bias? Wenn ja, gerechtfertigt? Die US-Wirtschaft würde gerne...

Index-Kombi von DAX-Kursindex, MDAX-Kursindex, SDAX-Kursindex (2009 - März 2017), Chart erstellt von Mag. Ralph Gollner; Charting-tool: guidants.de

...

"Unser Gehirn kann nicht mit Geld umgehen, daher sind wir Idioten der Kapitalanlage":

So der Ex-Banker Roland Ullrich, der sich nun nach seinem Ausstieg aus der Banker-Welt, der Verhaltensökonomie und Hirnforschung verschrieben hat. Aus dem Literarischen wissen wir vom Rat eines guten...

Nucleus accumbens (Amygdala)

...

"Wie Kultur die Anleger beeinflusst"

Kulturelle Unterschiede auch in Finanzfragen - Nordeuropäer cool/er (geduldig)

Trotz der fortschreitenden Globalisierung gibt es weiterhin kulturelle Unterschiede. Auf der Welt werden rund 6.500 Sprachen gesprochen, die Essgewohnheiten sind...

Verlustaversion und Geduld (Kultur, Geld-Anleger und Entscheidungen)

...

Psychologie & DAX

In persönlichen Gesprächen höre ich in letzter Zeit oft: Die Aktien steigen doch immer die letzten Jahre - "ist ja ganz einfach". Nun, so einfach ist es wohl nicht. You gotta have SKIN IN THE GAME ! Eine einfache Stütze ist jedoch ein langfristiger Anlagehorizont!

Investieren in den DAX (2014 - 2016), NO PAIN > NO GAIN !


"It's ...

Mr. Market

"Remember that the stock market is a manic depressive." (Warren Buffett)
Rules of logic often don't apply SHORT-TERM in investment markets. The well-known advocate of value investing, Benjamin Graham, coined the term "Mr. Market! (in 1949) as a metaphor to explain the stock market.

Mister Market (Dow Jones 1993 - 2012) ...

Home Bias versus Cosmopolitan

Everyone is guilty of home country bias, let's be different:
Try to invest/be(come) COSMOPOLITAN !

For many people, there's no place like home. But if you're only investing at home, first: you are taking high(er) risks and 2nd sometime you're missing out...

Cosmopolitan (versus Home Bias)


...

Wie viele Gefühle hat der Mensch?

Vorab stellt sich die Frage, wie relevant diese Frage für die "Behavioral Finance" ist? Nun, nicht nur für die Verhaltensökonomie ist die Auseinandersetzung mit Gefühlen extrem wichtig, auch für alle anderen Bereiche! Jeder hat Gefühle, aber...

Emotions_Lady

...für viele ...

Der Marmeladenversuch oder
"Die Qual der Wahl"

In den Medien machen öfter Artikel die Runde, die zum Gegenstand die Neuroökonomie haben. Solche Artikel tragen zum Beispiel Überschriften wie "Gibt es ein schlaues Verhalten?" Für die Börse ist diese Thematik ein gefundenes Fressen. Denn...

Marmeladenversuch (Qual der Wahl)


...

Artificial Intelligence and the
Investment process

Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) in investment management is a possibility; But there are many aspects in the investment process where AI can and cannot function as a support. Even the most sophisticated machine learning...

AI and the Investment Process

...technologies ...

Hippocampus and the
"Whole-Brain State"

Imagine this: You've just had your largest loss ever (or big one), and you are feeling incredibly risk averse, almost to the point where nothing looks good to invest your money "now". With each new opportunity that comes, you find yourself...

Hippocamputs and the "Whole-Brain State"

...still ...

Herd behavior

This effect is evident when people do what others are doing instead of using their own information or making independent decisions. The idea of herding has a long history in philosophy and crowd psychology.

Herd Behaviour (Attention !)


It is particularly relevant in the domain of finance, where it has ...

US-Consumer confidence

"Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at a 17-year high," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved moderately, while...

US-Consumer confidence (Nov. 2017)

...their expectations ...

FLOW
Optimal state of consciousness
(Intelligent Risk-Taking "can" go up, Creativity goes up)

Flow ist ein Zustand höchster Konzentration auf eine Aufgabe. Fast so, als wenn du in einer Blase sitzen würdest; Du nimmst die Dinge um dich herum nicht mehr richtig wahr. Sie werden zum...

Flow (Struggle, Flow, Recover)

...