Super Bowl Indicator
You may not know it, but the winner of this year’s Super Bowl may be a predictor of how the stock market performs in 2016. A Carolina Panthers' victory would lead to a rising Dow Jones Ind. Average in 2016 - in theory...
There’s a long and kind of complicated history to the method - dubbed the “Super Bowl predictor” or “indicator” - that goes back to when there were separate football leagues, but now it boils down to this:
Short & in theory ;-)
If a National Football Conference team wins the Super Bowl, then the Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise in 2016. If an American Football Conference team wins, then the index will fall.
This phenomenon has an amazing success rate: 82%.
In fact, the winning NFL team has tracked how the markets fared the last seven years in a row, as well as for 40 of all 49 Super Bowl years, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Take 2015 for example: The New England Patriots won, and the Dow fell 2.2% for the year.
Robert H. Stovall, an analyst who’s popularized the predictor, admits it has no grounding in fact. “There is no intellectual backing for this sort of thing,” he said in an interview with the Journal, “except that it works.”
Stovall, nearly 90, credits the idea for the indicator to a sportswriter, Leonard Koppett, who discovered the correlation back in 1978, according to CNBC.