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Bis Q4-2018/eher 2019 ist wohl keine Hoffnung auf
steigende Zinsen angebracht...

Somit droht europäischen Aktien aber auch kein Gegenwind in Form steigender Zinsen. Weitere Unterstützung für Aktien kommt von der Weltkonjunktur, insbesondere den Schwellenländern.

PMI Eurozone (2017)

please check out the most recent/current PMI-readings as per country:
www.markiteconomics.com/public

Kurzfristig signalisiert aber der Rückgang des Einkaufsmanagerindex für den Dienstleistungssektor der Eurozone von 55,8 auf 54,9, dass die konjunkturellen Bäume nicht in den Himmel wachsen. Doch präsentiert sich die Lage im ...

India (GDP 2000 - 2016)

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in India from 2000 to 2016:

The projections up until 2020 are shown in the next graph (see below). As can be seen in both graphs (but different sources) in the year 2013, the estimated gross domestic product per capita in India amounted to about 1,450 to 1,475 U.S. dollars.

India's economic progress

India's progress as a country over the past decade can be attributed to a global dependency on cheaper production of goods and services from developed countries around the world. India's economy is ...

Let's check out this "widget"

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is made up of its components: C + I + G + (M - X); Or in other words: Private Consumption, Business Investment, Government Investment and Net Exports; Here you will find some data on China/the Private Consumption component (C):


Some info on Household final consumption expenditure:

Household final consumption expenditure (formerly private consumption) is the market value of all goods and services, including durable products (such as cars, washing machines, and home computers), purchased by households. It excludes purchases of ...

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Okt. 2014 bis Okt. 2017

Der Baltic Dry Index (BDI) wird von der Baltic Exchange in London veröffentlicht und ist ein wichtiger Preisindex für das weltweite Verschiffen von Hauptfrachtgütern (hauptsächlich Kohle, Eisenerz und Getreide) auf Standardrouten.

Baltic Dry Index (Okt. 2014 bis 2. Okt. 2017)

Der Baltic Dry Index (BDI) wird seit 1985 von der Baltic Exchange, 1744 in London gegründet, veröffentlicht und aus den standardisierten Angaben verschiedener Marktteilnehmer ermittelt.

Untergruppen des Index berücksichtigen 26 Hauptschifffahrtsrouten und erfassen die Kosten für Zeitcharter und Reisecharter für ...

Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator
Making Sense of The European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)

The ESI is derived from surveys gathering the assessments of economic operators of the current economic situation and their expectations about future developments. The ESI is derived...

ESI (Sep. 2017)

...from surveys gathering the assessments of economic operators of the current economic situation and their expectations about future developments. The ESI is a composite indicator made up of five sectoral confidence indicators with different weights:

♦ Industrial confidence indicator,
♦ Services ...

GDP Growth & Stock Market Returns
(1970 - 2015)

There is always (!) the relationship between macroeconomics and (financial) markets. There should be some skepticism that in a low global growth world we can maintain persistently high long-term market returns. There may actually be a simple...

Global GDP Growth, Global EPS Growth and Global Stock Returns (Ralph Goller, 22nd Sep. 2017)


...rough relationship between global economic growth and and market returns. The thing that drives both corporate profit growth (EPS-growth = Earnings-per-share growth) and economic growth (GDP-growth = Gross Domestic Product-growth) is the growth in final end-demand. In the absence of global ...

Chicago PMI & ISM-Index

Der Chicago Einkaufsmanagerindex (Chicago PMI) misst die Gesundheit der Wirtschaft des Herstellungssektors in der Region Chicago. Jede Lesung über 50 weist auf eine Erweiterung des Herstellungssektors, während eine Lesung unter 50 ...

Chicago PMI (Juni 2017) bei 65,7 !, Quelle: investing.com

...auf eine Verkleinerung hindeutet. Der Chicago PMI kann weiters hilfreich sein bei der Vorhersage des US ISM-Index und weist normalerweise eine recht starke Korrelation mit dem ISM auf. Hinweis: ISM steht für "Institute of Suppy Management".

Im folgenden Schaubild habe ich eine Untersektion des ISM angeführt, nämlich den USA - ...

GDP-Growth (Productivity Growth "inside")
1950-2014 & 2014-2064 (!)

Without action, global economic growth may almost halve in the next 50 years. (BUT) a "new" McKinsey Global Institute report offers a solution: a dramatic improvement in productivity.

 

GDP growth, CAGR (1700-2014)

Over the past 50 years, global economic growth was exceptionally rapid. The world economy expanded sixfold. Average per capita income almost tripled. Hundreds of millions of people were lifted out of poverty.

For the past half century, the twin engines of rapid population growth (expanding the number of workers) and a brisk increase ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The "CFNAI" is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on scheduled days, normally toward the end of each calendar month.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 2017)

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading ...

The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class

Middle Class (2006 - 2028), "best guess"

Next 10 years better than last 10 years (?)
Eurozone (Status: Q2/2017)

The Eurozone as a whole is around cyclical equilibrium, but this masks significant divergences between depressed periphery countries and Germany, where the economy is running hot. In response to ECB stimulation, growth...

Real GDP per capita in the Eurozone since 1970 (until Q1-2017)

...has picked up a bit, but inflation is still weak and below the ECB target. Nominal interest rates on both the short and the long end are around zero and are priced to stay low for years.

Original paper/link: www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio

LEI (U.S)
1973 - 2017

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading,...

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), 1973 - April 2017

...coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarise and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth ...

Markit Eurozone PMI and GDP (1999 - 2017)

PMI & GDP Eurozone (Q1-2017, April 2017)

Eurozone PMI shows growth a six-year high! The eurozone's private sector has posted its best quarter since the start of the financial crisis.

WrapUp: Data firm Markit reports that Eurozone output and new order growth accelerated to near six-year records in March 2017!

The report found that:

♦ March saw the strongest inflows of new business into the eurozone economy since April 2011.
♦ Employment growth was the sharpest in over nine- and-a-half years.
♦ Price pressures remained strong in March. Input cost inflation was close to February's ...

Der globale Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) notiert über der "magischen 50-er Marke"

Der globale Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI), 2016Quelle: FactSet, Markit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Der globale Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) bewertet die wirtschaftliche Gesundheit des verarbeitenden Gewerbes, indem die Pläne für Leistung und Beschäftigung abgefragt werden. Quelle bzgl. Übersicht oben: Guide to the Markets - Europe. Stand der Daten: 31. Dezember 2016.

Die folgende Statistik zeigt den globalen Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) der Industrie von März 2016 bis März 2017. Im März 2016 lag der globale EMI noch bei 50,6 Punkten (aktuell bei relativ ...

The phases of the economy provide a framework for sector allocation

Over the intermediate term, asset performance is often driven largely by cyclical factors tied to the state of the economy, such as corporate earnings, interest rates, and inflation. The business cycle, which encompasses...

Dynamic Asset Allocation Timeline

source: www.fidelity.com

...the cyclical fluctuations in an economy over many months or a few years, can therefore be a critical determinant of equity market returns and the performance of equity sectors.

Asset price fluctuations are driven by a confluence of various short-, intermediate-, and ...

Who knows what the future will bring
(2016-2050!)

Today's advanced economies will continue to have higher average incomes, but emerging economies should make good progress towards closing this gap by 2050. This will open up great opportunities for businesses prepared to make long-term...

Growth projections for selected economies compared to the world (2016-2050), (data-)source: PWC

...investments in these markets. But this will require patience to ride out the storms we have seen recently in economies like, for example, Brazil, which should still have considerable long-term economic potential...

PWC projects the world economy to slow down over time, with a marked moderation in ...

Welt-Index (>50%), Zeitraum: 07/2011-12/2016

Der "Welt"-Index basiert auf einer Analyse der 50 weltweit wichtigsten Konjunkturindikatoren. Diese Auswertung wird monatlich für die "Welt am Sonntag" erstellt. Jeder Stand über 50% bedeutet solides Wachstum; Aktuell notiert der Index bei 67%:

Welt-Index (>50%), somit positiv (Status: Dez. 2016), Quelle: N-tv.de & Dr M. Zschaber


Zur Methode:
Der "Welt-Index" umfasst die 50 relevantesten Konjunkturdaten der Welt. Dazu gehören Schwergewichte wie der Vertrauensindex der Universität Michigan, Auftragseingänge der deutschen Industrie oder Chinas Exporte, aber auch einige OECD - Frühindikatoren oder das Wirtschaftsvertrauen in ...

China (2015 - 2025) & U.S.A. - Trade Relationship

As the Chinese middle class continues its rapid expansion over the next decade (the number of Chinese middle-class consumers will exceed the entire population of the United States by 2026), US companies face significant opportunities...

Chinese FDI into the US (accelerating), 2002-2015, source: US-China Business Council by Oxford Economics, Jan. 2017

...to tap into a new and lucrative customer base that can further boost employment and economic growth. Economic data show that nations trading closely with China outperform nations with less integrated trade ties, and we expect this trend to continue.

China has become the third-largest purchaser of ...

PMIs Global (Jan. 2017)

Global PMI-Status; Out of 47 countries/regions 33 countries carry a PMI reading > 50 (pos. reading), 33/47 = 70%**. Every year (around January) I am building my own Global-PMI-Tachometer Status.

Global PMIs, January 2017 (Ralph Gollner), positive conclusion

Definition of 'Purchasing Managers' Index - PMI: An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

Breaking Down 'Purchasing Managers' Index - PMI: A PMI of more than 50 represents expansion of the manufacturing ...

US Consumer sentiment (highest level in 12 years)

The final December (-2016) reading on consumer sentiment rose to 98.2 in December, up both from the preliminary reading of 98 earlier in the month of December and November's final reading of 93.8.

US Consumer-Sentiment (2004 - Dec. 2016)

The December reading is the highest since January 2004. Analysts follow readings of confidence to look for clues about consumer spending, the backbone of the economy. "Ongoing solid readings on consumer confidence reinforce our view that GDP growth should remain firm in the near term, and we see the level of confidence as consistent with ...

Bank Austria Konjunkturindikator
Mit 1,9 Punkten höchster Wert seit Sommer 2011

Aus dem Bericht habe ich folgende Passagen herausgehoben: "Die Erholung der österr. Wirtschaft gewinnt an Kraft. Der Bank Austria Konjunkturindikator zeigt seit dem Frühjahr klar nach oben."

Bank Austria Konjunkturindikator Oesterreich (Stand: Dezember 2016)

Mit 1,9 Punkten wurde im November der höchste Wert seit dem Sommer 2011 erreicht. Nach einer anfänglich nur sehr moderaten Aufwärtstendenz hat sich die Konjunkturstimmung in Österreich zum Jahresausklang spürbar verbessert. Die Konjunktur in Österreich profitiert derzeit von einer Stimmungsbelebung in der Industrie ...

U.S. Economy Briefing (Indicators, Yardeni Research)

Great Long Time Series from Yardeni Research, check out also his blog: http://blog.yardeni.com

Strong relationship between the Weekly Leading Index and the broad stock market (S&P 500)!
This can be clearly seen from 1998 - Dec. 2016:

ECRI Weekly Leading Index versus S&P 500 (1998 - Dec. 2016)


US Profits Cycle (New Factory Orders), 1995 - 8th Dec. 2016 (Oct. 2016)


US Profits Cycle (US Industrial Production), 1980 - 8th Dec. 2016 (Nov. 2016)


Confidence, Bomm Bust Barometer, 2000 - 10th/16th Dec. 2016

US-Corporate Profits
(- Q3/2016)

A key measure of after-tax earnings across U.S. corporations rose 5.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday, 29th Nov 2016. That was the first annual increase since late 2014 and the strongest...

Corporate Profits After Tax vs. S&P 500 (2007 - Q3/2016)

...year-over-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2012. Tuesday's Commerce Department report (29th Nov. 2016) also showed that gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at an inflation- and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, ...

US-Unemployment rate & S&P 500 (inverted / correlation)
(1995 - 2016)

The trend of the unemployment rate and the S&P 500 are highly correlated. The right y-axis scale for the unemployment rate is inverted to better highlight this relationship.

S&P 500 and Unemployment Rate (1995 - 2016), source: 720Globalsource: www.720global.com/articles-commentary

On 4th November 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment data for October 2016. Economists rely heavily on this data to help gauge the health of the economy. Investors believe the data provides valuable insight into the likelihood that the Federal Reserve adjusts monetary ...

GDP - projections up to 2060 (Status: 2016)
source: OECD

The period from 2008 up to 2015 were turbulent times for the global economy. This can also clearly be seen in the Run-Up of the Chinese economy (in Gross-Domestic-Product terms) versus the so called industrialised countries:

GDP-projections up to 2060 (Status: 2016, OECD)

In the long run, Gross-Domestic-Product Growth can be achieved via technology-advances, population growth, "intelligent" consumption of households and the Government, through (Infrastructure-)Investments by the Government and private companies. etc.

 

link (OECD-forecasts):  ...

ISM versus US-GDP (1995 - 06/2016)

ISM versus US-GDP (1995 - 06/2016)

link to the great Video of Raoul Pal: www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDoIbFuKgfU

Zinsen & Inflationsrate USA (1800 - 2015)

Wer sich die Geschichte ansieht, versteht die aktuelle Situation besser und kann mit einer realistischen Erwartungshaltung gewappnet auch souveräner damit umgehen. Einleitend der Verlauf der Zinsen und Inflationsrate über acht Jahrzehnte:

Zinsen und Inflation - Historie (USA, 1930 - 2015)Quelle: Material des US Bureau of Labor Statistics und der Federal Reserve Database

In dieser Grafik sehen Sie den amerikanischen Einlagen-Zinssatz (blau) und die Inflationsrate (rot) des Landes seit 1928. Hier muss daran erinnert werden: Nur wenn die Zinsen oberhalb der Inflation liegen, erzielt man real ...

Investitionsfalle 2016 (?)

Frage: Wie lässt sich die Nachfrage am Gütermarkt auf das Niveau anheben, das für Vollbeschäftigung notwendig ist? Am einfachsten wäre es, die Zentralbank würde die Zinsen senken und so private Investitionen ankurbeln. Laut Keynes investieren Unternehmen...

Investitionsfalle (2016 ?)

...in neue Maschinen, wenn der Zins für den Anschaffungskredit niedriger ist als die erwartete Rendite der Maschine, die er als "Grenzleistungsfähigkeit des Kapitals" bezeichnete. Senkt die Zentralbank also die Zinsen, kommen zusätzliche Investitionen in Gang, und die Nachfragelücke verschwindet.

...

Retail Sales In the Euro Area (2011 - 07/2016)

Retail Sales In the Euro Area increased 2.9% in July of 2016 over the same month in the previous year, better than a 1.7 % rise in June and beating expectations of a 1.9 % gain.

Total Retail Trade - Euro Area (2007 - 07/2016)

Retail Sales YoY in the Euro Area averaged 1.04 % from 1996 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 5 % in November of 1998 and a record low of -4.60 % in February of 2009.

In July 2016 compared with July 2015 the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.9% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU28.

Annual comparison by retail sector and by Member ...

US-Recessions since 1929 & Stock-Returns

Reminder: Normally, recessions are a fact of life, so we need to get used to them every 4-10 years or so. The following table shows each US-Recession since the late-1920s:

US-Recessions since 1929 (-2009)

The next logical step from here is to see how stocks performed in and around these past Recessions. Here one sees the return-statistics based on the monthly S&P 500 data going back to the mid-1950s. This database should be good enough to show the total returns leading up to, during and after each of the past nine recessions:

This is another piece of evidence that shows why ...

Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI
(PMI = Purchasing Manufacturing Index)

Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said: "The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.6 for July,...

Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI (2004 - July 2016)

...up significantly by 2.0 points from the reading for June, marking the first expansion since February 2015. The sub-indexes of output, new orders and inventory all surged past the neutral 50-point level that separates growth from decline. This indicates that the Chinese economy has begun to show signs of ...

Baltic Dry Index (Snapshot July 2016)
Chart 2007 - 22nd July 2016

Since the Baltic Dry Index débuted, in 1985, economists of all stripes have routinely consulted it as a trusted proxy for trade activity. Based in London, the Baltic Dry Index (B.D.I.) reflects the rates that...

Baltic Dry Index (LongTerm-Chart, 2007 - 07/2016)

...freight carriers charge to haul basic, solid raw materials, such as iron ore, coal, cement, and grain. As a daily composite of the tonnage fees on popular seagoing routes, the B.D.I. essentially mirrors supply and demand at the most elementary level. A decrease usually means that shipping prices and ...

UK base rate since 1694

Interest rates in the UK have been maintained today. Find out just how this compares to rates in the past. Interest rates in the UK have stayed at a low level for some time. In fact, they haven't been this stationary for years:

US Base Rate (1694 - 2015)

Why do rates matter? Here is some explanation:

Since 1997 rates have been decided by the nine members of the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC), which is chaired by the Bank's governor. It meets each month to vote on whether to raise or lower rates, or leave them unchanged.

Interest rates are one lever used to control the economy. ...

Bremain vs. Brexit Polls (22nd June 2016)

This is just a snaphost of the last 10 individual polls regarding Bremain OR Brexit (Status: 22nd June 2016; CET 11:15):

Brexit/Bremain polls overview 22nd June 2016

BREXIT-Poll tracker*: The latest developments indicate a REMAIN-camp of 47% versus the LEAVE-camp of 45% (status as per 22nd June 2016, 11:20 p.m. CET).

*The FT poll of polls is calculated by taking the last seven polls from unique pollsters up to a given date, removing the two polls with the highest leads for 'remain' and 'leave', and calculating an adjusted average of the five remaining polls, where the more recent polls ...

Economics-update U.S.A.

Capacity Utilization in the United States averaged 80.41 percent from 1967 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 89.4 percent in January of 1967 and a record low of 66.89 percent in June of 2009. Maybe some stabilsation now?!

US Capacity Utilization

As can be seen in the graph above, Capacity Utilization in the United States increased to 75.4 percent in April from 74.9 percent in March of 2016. Another good indicator about the current state of the economy in the United States is the figure on the Industrial production. Industrial production measures the output of businesses ...

Austrian Economics
(Definition)

It is the School of economic thought originating in Austria in the late nineteenth century which focuses on the concept of opportunity cost. Following some confronting views of Keynesian Economics VERSUS Austrian Economics:

Keynesian Economics versus Austrian Economicssource: http://theaustrianinsider.com

In economic theory, the term Austrian School stands for liberalism and laissez-faire-economics (where economic performance is optimised when there is limited government interference).

The Austrian School of economics has its original roots in the work of Carl Menger from the University of Vienna . ...

China/Yuan (CNY), Feb. 2016 (FX-Reserves)

Société Générale, using the International Monetary Fund’s rule of thumb on reserve adequacy, estimates that China’s foreign-currency reserves are at 118% of the recommended level.

China Forex Reserves (2015), zerohedge

But that cushion (my word creation:) MIGHT evaporate soon on a combination of capital flight and the continuing effort by financial authorities to stem a dramatic drop in the currency. China’s reserves totaled USD 3.33 trillion in December 2016, according to official government data. Edwards estimated that China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by about USD 120 ...

Inflation oder Deflation (Jan. 2016)

Die Frage der Fragen; Noch hat Keiner einer "sichere" Antwort, was die Jahre 2016 und 2017 bringen werden...

Inflation versus Deflation (Kurze Definition)

Quelle: http://www.inflation-deflation.de

Eine aktuelle Übersicht die Preisentwicklung von Gütern (Deutschland): https://www.destatis.de

Global Exports

The following table shows revised trade projections for 2015 and 2016, which depend on consensus estimates of world real GDP growth at market exchange rates. Important to know, that EM-exports tend to correlate with returns from EM-investments:

WTO Merchandise trade volume & real GDP, 2011-2016e

The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volume as measured by the average of exports and imports to grow 2.8% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016. On the export side, shipments from developed economies should rise 3.0% this year and 3.9% next year. Developing economies' exports are expected to grow more slowly at 2.4% in 2015 and 3.8% ...

Industrial Production December 2015

Industrial Production in the United States decreased 1.8 percent in December of 2015 over the same month in the previous year, following a 1.2 percent fall in the previous month. The drop in November 2015 was the first drop since December of 2009...

US-Industrial Production (Nov. & Dec. 2015 - NEGATIVE!)

To put this devevlopment into Long-Term-perspective, please don't get frightened:

US-Industrial productio (Long-Term / Nov. & Dec. 2015)

As I have shown in a recent posting, Long-Term-perspective/the path of US-Industrial production and the US-Stock-Market (S&P 500) tend to follow the same direction!

Industrial Production November 2015 (versus S&P 500)

Industrial Production in the United States decreased (!!) 1.2 percent in November of 2015 over the same month in the previous year. It is the first drop since December of 2009...

US-Industrial Producation month-over-month, year 2015

..as mining output fell 8.2 percent and utilities went down 7.6 percent while manufacturing increased 0.9 percent (the release of the new/most recent datapoint will be on the 15th Jan. 2016).

Long-Term-perspective/the path of US-Industrial production and US-Stock-Market (S&P 500) tend to follow the same direction:

US-Industrial Production versus S&P 500

US-GDP versus US-Stock Market (Atlanta FED)

The Stock Market ist discounting future expectations, therefore I should be more specific; US-GDP-expectations for the 4th quarter 2015 versus the US-Stock Market evolution since Nov. 2015 up to 5th January 2016:

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast

S&P 500 (SPX) & (RUT) Russel 2000 (Small Cap Index)
30th October up to 5th January 2016 (Volume stated for the S&P 500)

Maybe one should not be freigthenend, but in the light of the consensus in the broad market (this is my personal assumption!) the expectations themself! from the Atlanta-FED seem to experience a pretty ...

Welthandel (2015 bis 2050!)

Experten gehen davon aus, dass das globale Handelsvolumen (per 2015) sich bis zum Jahr 2050 vervierfacht. Das entspräche einem Anstieg auf 68,5 Bio. US-Dollar pro Jahr.

HSBC-study - percentage of World Exports (1865-2050), status 2015

Die Marktanteile von Deutschland und USA werden nachlassen, jener Marktanteil von China dafür explodieren (s. oben). Im Jahr 2050 wird das Reich der Mitte somit der mit Abstand größte Exporteur sein – gefolgt von den USA, Deutschland und Korea.

HSBC-Prognose/Rasantes Wachstum der Handelsströme (Meldung per 24. November 2015), download der HSBC-Studie „Trade Winds“ hier:  ...

Related Articles

Worldwide Rig Count 2010- 5/2015 (OIL / business barometer)

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count ...

Please check out Scrapbook of Reviews on Benoit Mandelbrot
http://users.math.yale.edu/mandelbrot/

[...]
"Nach dem konventionellen mathematischen Modell dürfte es zwischen 1916 und 2003 nur 58-mal passiert sein, dass der Dow-Jones-Index an einem Tag mehr als 3,4 % steigt oder fällt. In Wahrheit ...

Long-Term-Investing

Time horizons: The longer, the better
Based on several well-known studies, the length of time that individual investors hold stocks, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has shrunk precipitously over the past 50 years. Back then it was common for investors to have ...

Anlagezeitraum für Aktien (10 Jahre sollte die Meisten belohnen (?)

http://www.private-investment.at/app/webroot/img/RenditeAktien_Handelsblatt_10Jahresrenditen_1990_2014_2015Sep.png

link zum Selber-nachrechnen: http://finanzen.handelsblatt.com

MSCI Indizes (Aktien p.a. 1989 bis 2014)

Die USA und Europa haben das weltweite Börsengeschehen in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten geprägt. Die Serie "Bewährte Märkte" von Fidelity International beleuchtet die Fakten dieser Märkte im Detail (Kommentare von mir leicht geändert):

MSCI Indizes Gewinn od. Verlust (1989 - 2014)

Die USA und ...

Gesundheitsausgaben (in % vom BIP), Langzeithistorie

Gesundheitsausgaben global (Historie bis 2012)

Den mit Abstand höchsten Anteil der Gesundheitsausgaben am BIP verzeichneten die USA (16,9 Prozent), gefolgt von den Niederlanden (11,8), Frankreich (11,6) und der Schweiz (11,4 Prozent). Österreich liegt mit 11,1 Prozent knapp zwei ...

S&P 500 yearly returns 1980 - 2014

US-Stock-Market-Returns (S&P 500) were positive in 27 out of the last 35 years (timespan: 1980 - 2014)! Out of these 27 years a positive return of at least 20% has been achieved in 12 years. Status of annual return overview: 25th Aug. 2015.

JP Morgan Overview - S&P 500 historyplease check out ...

WORST START EVER, yes indeed, we made history!!

zerohedge.com / putting the 1st week of 2016 into perspective ("worst ever")

source: http://www.zerohedge.com

History recap of the 1st trading-week of the year 2016

For the 1st week in 2016, the S&P 500 fell 6 %, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 6.2 % and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled even 7.3 % (in only 5 days).

US Stocks start into 2016

It was the worst start to a year for the S&P 500 on record. S&P 500 components, a ...

China Exports (New Year-effect, Feb. 2016)

The export crash is misleading in this case because the Jan. & Feb.-months host China’s biggest holiday, the Chinese New Year, when factories rush to meet orders before business shuts down (see yellow boxes in the last years):

China-Exports 2011-2016 (watch out for the Chinese New-year-effect)

Disclaimer "upfront": ...

St. Patrick's Day (17th March 2016)

St. Patrick’s Day has a bullish history itself. DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 also exhibit solid track records of gains over the past 21 years on the thirteenth trading day of March (see StockTradersAlmanac.com).

St. Patricks' Day (17th March 2016)

Average gains range from 0.26% for DJIA ...

Umlaufrendite/Staatslanleihen (Historie)
1993 - 04/2016

Die Umlaufrendite deutscher Bundesanleihen ist am Montag (11. April 2016) erstmals auf 0 % gefallen. Damit erhalten Anleger, die in deutsche Anleihen investieren, im Schnitt erstmals keine Zinsen mehr. Vorab die deutsche Bundesanleihe:

Deutsche Bundesanleihe (10 Jahre), Chart 1993 bis April 2016

...

Momentum (last 3 months)

Momentum picking up! Check out each sector-development in the big stocks-universe (> 4,900 stocks). All sectors (!!) in the green over the given period (status: 16th April 2016):

3 months performance (sectors; > 4,900 companies)

The wide US-Stock Market (S&P 500/SPX) is also gaining momentum (again), as can be seen ...

Baltic Dry Index (All-Time-Low Feb. 2016)

Der Baltic Dry ist im Feb. 2016 so tief gesunken wie noch nie zuvor (per April jedoch wieder kräftigst erholt!). Der Index bildet die Frachtkosten wichtiger Rohstoffe wie Eisenerz, Kohle und Kupfer ab.

Baltic Dry Index (Mai 2015 - 15. April 2016)

In der Regel ist die Container-Schifffahrt ...

Absolute Return vs. Warren Buffet, Ray Dalio
(Q4/2013 - Dez. 2015)

Es gibt zum abgelaufenen Jahr 2015 und dem Finanzmarkt mehrere Meinungen. Einige meinen sogar, für kleine Aktienwerte, Nebenwerte und Mid-Caps war 2015 garnicht so anstrend und schwierig, wie die Mehrheit meint.

Mag. Ralph Gollner (Absolute Return Ansatz versus Warren Buffet versus Ray Dalio), Okt. 2013 - Dez. 2015Performance ...

Dividend-ETF (vs. S&P 500), period: 2006 - 2015

The average investor may be searching for "low-expense-fee"-ETFs in order to build his Long-Term-Portfolio. Following ETF achieved an annual performance of 13.46% in the last 5 years (10-year perf. yoy: 8.63%):

Yearly Performance (sample Dividend-ETF, history: 2006 - 2015)

In an ETF the stock selection ...

S&P 500 Streaks without a 1%-drop
Is A Lack Of Volatility A Sign Of Complacency?

The S&P 500 Index has gone 104 days in a row without a 1% close lower! In fact, the S&P 500 hasn't moved in a daily range of more than 1% for 59 days in a row, the longest such streak going back 50 years and...

S&P 500 Streaks without a 1%-drop (1950 - March 2017), Source: LPL Research, FactSet, 13th March 2017

...

Selected Hedge-Fund performance (year 2015)

In the following overview you can find last years' performance of selected Hedge-Fund Managers, ATTENTION: Last years' return-calculation is based on the weighted portfolio performance:

Selected Hedge Funds (performance last year), Status: April 2016

The more than a dozen (pretty well known) mentioned ...

Mittelschicht-anstieg 2016 bis 2030!

Zwischen 1990 und 2010 hat sich der weltweite Anteil der Menschen, die unterhalb der absoluten Armutsgrenze von 1,25 US-Dollar leben müssen, mehr als halbiert, von 47 auf 22 Prozent. Das entspricht einer Verminderung um 700 Millionen Menschen.

Mittelschicht (global; 2009, Prognose: 2020, 2030)

Die ...

S&P 500 "Forecast" 2016 - 2022

Do Past 10-Year Returns Forecast Future 10-Year Returns? Vanguard expands its previous research in using U.S. stock returns since 1926 to assess the predictive power of more than a dozen metrics that investors know ahead of time:

Expected U.S. stock returns (nominal returns) from 2012 onwards

Projections are based on ...

Die fünf Vorsorgetypen in Österreich

Wie die ÖsterreicherInnen mit dem Thema „Private Pensionsvorsorge“ umgehen, wie sie sich entscheiden oder auch nicht, zeigt eine Studie der BAWAG P.S.K. (Nov. 2014).

5 verschiedene Vorsorgetypen in Österreich (Bawag P.S.K./Marketagent.com - Studie, 2014)

Die Befragten sind sich darüber im Klaren, dass das Thema „Private Pensionsvorsorge“ ...

Carl C. Icahn (Investor)

C. Icahn has, unequivocally, shown superior skill as an investor. Consider this: Icahn has returned 31% annualized between 1968 and 06/2015. BUT since 2014 everything got a little bit more difficult...

Warren Buffet - quote (on Reputation)

Still: Based on the weighted portfolio performance he achieved ...

US-population 1950-2016

The US-population is growing ever since. GDP-Growth is achieved via productivity growth, but also due to more people producing a higher output (GDP). In the U.S.A. the population more than doubled from the year 1950 until now.

US Population (1950 - 2016)current US-population figures:  ...

US-New Home Sales

New Home Sales in the United States averaged 652.45 Thousand from 1963 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 1,389 Thousand in July of 2005 and a record low of 270 Thousand in February of 2011.

US New Home Sales (2009 - 05/2016)

Definition: A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales ...

Snapchat versus Facebook
(Status: HY1/2016)

Snapchat is coming up! Tumblr, Vine, Twitter, Pinterest, Instagram, Linkedin – Nearly no one can reach the time spent by US-users on its platform. Only Facebook-users spend more time per month on its platform: ca. 1,000 minutes.

Snapchat versus Facebook (HY1/2016)

Photo-Sharing is ...

Aktien versus DE-Umlaufrendite

Die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB zeigt immer fatalere Auswirkungen: Die Umlaufrendite ist im April erstmals auf 0 Prozent gesunken. Das heißt: Wer dem deutschen Staat Geld leiht, bekommt im Schnitt keine Zinsen mehr. Ein Novum!

Deutsche Umlaufrendite versus DAX (2011-2016)

Was den deutschen ...

Top Brandz (2016)

The world’s 100 biggest brands still command a significant premium over others and that value increased by 3% to USD 3.4tn this year, according to the latest BrandZ rankings compiled by MillwardBrown, the research agency:

Top BrandZ (June 2016), TOP15 selectedcomplete list/please click here:  ...

Rolling Returns 12 months & S&P 500
(July 2016 - 07/2017 - July 2018)

Writing about one-year-targets (implied returns), one should keep in mind, that the average ROLLING-RETURN for a 1 year period is 7.02%, the median for a 1 year-rolling-period in the Dow Jones Industrial average is 6.62%.

S&P 500 July 2016 (possible Scenarios? 2017 and 2018)

...

Indien & China (Mittelschicht-Anstieg)

China: In den kommenden (vier bis) fünf Jahren steigt der Konsum im Reich der Mitte um 50 Prozent, behauptet eine Studie. Vor allem die jungen wohlhabenden Chinesen geben demnach viel mehr Geld aus als ihre Eltern.

Reales BIP-Wachstum Chinas (1990 - Q1&2016)

Folgend der eingangs erwähnten Studie ...

For the first time, America is no longer No. 1 for super-rich

The wealth of high net worth individuals (HNWI) in the Asia-Pacific grew by 10% or almost five times North America's 2% growth for "HNWI" last year, according to a Report released by Capgemini, a global consulting service.

HNWI worldwide (2015)

There ...

Betriebliche & überbetriebliche Pensionskassen Österreichs

Die Performance betrug in 2015 +2,36%. Der Fokus liegt (jedoch) auf langfristiger Veranlagung. Der durchschnittliche Veranlagungserfolg der österr. Pensionskassen liegt mit Ende des 3. Quartals 2016 bei +3,3%.

Pensionskassen Österreichs (Performance 1991 - Sep. 2016)

Der 1992 gegründete ...

Banking in the US / Net Interest Margin & 10YR-US-Treasuries

Net interest margin is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks or other financial institutions and the amount of interest paid out to their lenders (for example, deposits), relative...

10YR-US-Treasuries vs. Financial Sector (-ETF), 2015 & 2016

...to the ...

Fund Flows (Tailwind for stocks ?!)
Nov./Dec. 2016

Investors plowed money back into ETFs at a breakneck pace during the first week of December 2016. After adding USD 48 billion to U.S.-listed ETFs in November, they added USD 14.6 billion to the space in the week ending Thursday, 8th December.

Fund Flows (Tailwind for stocks?!), Nov./Dec. 2016, source: yardeni.com ...

The Majority of the World’s Population Lives in This Circle

China and India, or "Chindia" - is home to about 40 percent of the world's population. Furthermore there are now at least 3.8 billion people living inside the highlighted circle (that circle holds 22 of the world's 37 megacities):

More Than Half of the World's Population Lives Inside this Circle (see Sout-East-Asian-Region incl. China/India), status: Year 2016

...

Die wertvollsten Unternehmen der Welt

Die Top-Plätze im Ranking der 100 teuersten Konzerne sind weiterhin für amerikanische Firmen reserviert. Der deutsche Spitzenreiter ist SAP auf Platz 60.

Wertvollste Unternehmen der Welt, Auszug: Deutschland (Quelle: EY, faz.net), Jahr 2016)

Die zehn wertvollsten Unternehmen der Welt kommen auch in diesem Jahr aus den Vereinigten Staaten. ...

The Pareto Principle

...is an economic term invented by an Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto in the 20th century. It is also called the 80-20 principle, meaning that 80% of effects come from 20% of the causes. In the book "The Tao of Warren Buffet" written...

The Pareto Principle (80/20)

...by Mary Buffett, one can ...

Remember the Big Bull Markets (50s, 90s)

I guess, the times to achieve great returns via Value-Investing are now much harder than in the last century...maybe, BUT: there always has to be an Equity Premium OVER Bond-yields! (my best guess)

 

Bull & Bear Markets (S&P 500 to 31st Jan. 2017), source: Bloomberg

For the purposes of this illustration, a bull ...

Wenn Du (als Junge/r) Zeit/GEDULD hast...

Beim Vorsorgen gilt: Besser früh und wenig als spät und viel. Wer zeitig mit dem Sparen anfängt, muss sich weniger stark einschränken als Spätberufene:

Monatlich notwendige Sparrate, um mit 65 Jahren eine halbe Million EUR im Depot zu haben...bei Sparbeginn im Atler von...

Ein plakatives Beispiel (siehe Schaubild oben):
Jemand setzt sich ein Sparziel von 500.000 Euro, ...

DAX-MATRIX
(Geburtsjahr bis Feb. 2017)

So viel Geld hättet ihr heute, wenn Eure Eltern bei Eurer Geburt in den DAX investiert hätten. Es ist ein Brauch, zur Geburt des Kindes gleich ein Sparbuch anzulegen, das ihm mit Zinsen zum 18. Geburtstag ausgezahlt wird. Noch schlauer wären...

DAX-Matrix (Geburtsjahr bis Feb. 2017), Anfangskapital versus Jan./Feb. 2017

...

DAX vs. Dow Jones Ind. Average
(Jan. 2000-Jan. 2017)

Von den 205 Monaten seit Ende 1999 wurden beim Dow Jones 122 mit Gewinn abgeschlossen. Dies entspricht einer Gewinnhäufigkeit von 59,51%. Der Dax (89 Monate im Plus) weist hingegen eine "reduzierte" Gewinnhäufigkeit von 56,6% auf.

Hinzu ...

DAX-Jahresrenditen (1991 - 2012)
2013-2016 bitte selber nachschlagen ;-)

Seit 1950 hat die langfristige reale Rendite des deutschen Aktienmarktes relativ konstant zwischen 5% und 9,5% p.a. betragen. Insofern sind 6% p.a. real bzw. 8% p.a. nominal gute Erwartungswerte für eine...

DAX-Jahresrenditen 1991-1999

...

72er-Regel (Verdoppelung)
144er-Regel (Vervierfachung)

Kleines Quiz: Wie lange müssen Sie Ihr Geld in Aktien anlegen, bis es sich bei einem durchschnittlichen Zinssatz (bei einer Rendite) von sechs Prozent pro Jahr verdoppeln wird? Die richtige Antwort liegt bei 11,9 Jahren. Eine...

72er Regel tafel (Quelle: Wissen-ist-Geld.de BLOG)

...

40 Jahre sparen
(nur 50 Euro pro Monat)

Zinseszinsen sind der größte Freund eines jeden Sparers und Anlegers. Über 40 Jahre kommen dabei erquickliche Summen zu Stande - selbst wenn man nur wenig Geld zurücklegen kann. Bei den genannten Endsummen ist schon berücksichtigt, dass die...

40 Jahre sparen (Ursprungsquelle: Finanzen 100, aber "CUT")

... ...

Economic Confidence Model

Martin A. Armstrong, a former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd, developed The Economic Confidence Model. He proposes that that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3,141 days, which is Pi X 1,000. At the end of each cycle is a crisis...

Economic Confidence Model (1991-2000, 2000-2008)

...

Bullenmärkte seit 1926 (inkl. "Bärenmärkte")
"kurz und schmerzvoll"

Wie lange kann ein Bullenmarkt "laufen"? Sehen wir uns eine Analyse des US-Vermögensverwalters First Trust an. Sie untersucht die Auf- und Abschwungphasen - im Börsendeutsch: Bullen- und Bärenmärkte - an der Wall Street...

S&P 500 seit 1926 (bis inkl. März 2017)


...

US Stockowners fearful (not greedy)
?

In the year 2016, according to a poll of over 1,000 American adults, even with the Dow Jones industrial average near its record high, only slightly more than half of Americans (52%) say they currently have money in the stock market,...

Percentage of US-Adults invested in the stock market

...matching the ...

US stock market returns don't look that extreme relative to history

Stock market returns are not as extreme as some might suggest. Following chart contrasts the current five-year return of the S&P 500 with the historical distribution of five-year returns. 

US stock market returns (rolling 5-Year periods), Aug. 2017

Of course, the recent experience ...

Tagesgeld und Inflation
Status: 15.07.2017

In den letzten 20 Jahren war über diese ganze Zeit noch nie der Abstand von Inflation zu Tagesgeldzins so hoch wie in den letzten Monaten. Weiteres Ansteigen der Inflation ist nicht ausgeschlossen,...

Tagesgeld und Inflation (Status: Juli 2017)

...aber ein baldiges Anziehen der ...

Stock Market Returns (Decades)

Although it is hard to observe in the everyday noise of the stock market, in the long run stock prices are driven by two factors: earnings growth (or decline) and/or price-to-earnings expansion (or contraction). ANNUAL StockMarket-Returns from 1930 until 2000:

Stock Market Returns Decades (1930 - 2000) ...

Künstliche Intelligenz
(Mögliches Potenzial 2017 bis 2025)

Hinter dem Begriff Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) verbirgt sich die Fähigkeit von Computern, menschliche Tätigkeiten zu übernehmen, meist jedoch schneller, präziser oder auch günstiger als ihre Vorbilder. Die technologischen...

Künstliche Intelligenz - Umsatzprognose (2016 - 2025)

...

Network effects

It's one of the most important concepts for business in general and especially for tech businesses, as it’s the key dynamic behind many successful software-based companies. Understanding network effects not only helps build better products, but...

Facebook first years (MAU - numbers)

...it helps build moats and ...