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World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI)

Indicator signals further loss of momentum... trade growth into Q4-2018

The World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) is designed to provide "real time" information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends. The latest value of 98.6 is lower than...

WTOI Status: last indication in the year 2018

...the previous value of 100.3 and falls under the baseline value of 100 for the index, signalling that trade growth in the coming months will be below-trend.

The most recent reading is the lowest since October 2016 (!)

The further moderation in the overall WTOI index was driven by declines in all indices, with export orders (96.6) in particular continuing to decline steadily over the course of the year and remaining below trend. Indices for automobile production and sales (96.9), electronic components (93.9), and agricultural raw materials (97.2) have moved from on trend to below trend. Meanwhile, international air freight (100.0) and container port throughput (101.2) have dipped but remain on trend.

About the Indicator: Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the opposite. The direction of change reflects momentum compared the previous month.


26th Nov. 2018: 98.6 (DOWN, even BELOW magic 100)

Aug. 2018: 100.3 (DOWN)

May 2018: 101.8 (DOWN)

Feb. 2018: 102.3 (UP)

Nov. 2017: 102.2 (DOWN)

Aug. 2017: 102.6 (UP)

May 2017: 102.2 (UP)

Feb. 2017: 102 (UP)

Nov. 2016: 100.9 (UP)

July 2016: 99.0


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