1973 - 2017
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading,...
...coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarise and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. include:
♦ Average weekly hours, manufacturing
♦ Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
♦ Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
♦ ISM Index of New Orders
♦ Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
♦ Building permits, new private housing units
♦ Stock prices, 500 common stocks
♦ Leading Credit Index
♦ Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
♦ Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Conclusion: NO SUDDEN RECESSION EXPECTED !