AAII Investment Survey (19th August 2020)
Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week. The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which offers insight into the mood of individual investors. Pessimism among...
...individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market extended its streak of staying above 40%. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows modestly higher levels of bullish sentiment and a small decline in neutral sentiment.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 0.4 percentage points to 30.4%. Though at a five-week high, optimism remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 24th consecutive week and the 29th week this year.
Pessimism is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 26th consecutive week and the 28th time this year. Pessimism is above 40% for the 22nd time out of the past 24 weeks. Bearish sentiment readings above 40.2% are unusually high (more than one standard deviation above average).
The ongoing high level of pessimism reflects concerns about the coronavirus pandemic and the economy. However, some AAII members have been encouraged by the rebound in the stock market from its March lows. Other factors influencing AAII members' sentiment include the economy, corporate earnings, valuations, the November elections and interest rates.