AAII Sentiment / 8week-Average (LT-LOW)

AAII Sentiment / 8week-Average (LongTerm-LOW)

The AAII 8-week moving average of bulls is below the 25%-threshold. This marks a lower level than in March 2003 and March 2009! The lack of bulls suggests, that a big majority may be betting on a big bad outcome.

AAII sentiment 8-week Average vs. S&P 500 (1996-2016-Feb)

My opinion: On average, the majority-opinion turns out to be wrong.
Still, this standard-outcome may just work, if everything turns out better than worse as it - most of the time - did in the past...